Wealthion: Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Begun, How Will It Unfold?
Investors who take a long view may often look to trends that typically don’t come up in financial markets. One of those trends is demographics, which looks at how a society changes over time.
That’s why some investors have talked about the “graying” of America, as the average age increases. But other demographers have noted long-term cycles. Some of those cycles can lead to stable periods, which are great for investors. Others can be more chaotic.
Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning, looks at how societies change during an 80-year cycle. Major turning points can occur, which can lead to big changes – and even renewals in slowing countries and economies.
Howe currently sees the USA nearing the peak of a Fourth Turning, with events like the dotcom crash and 9/11 as early signs. Add in the global financial crisis and now the pandemic, and it’s clear that many of today’s rifts are a generation in the making.
How this Turning unfolds can result in large changes. Prior turnings have occurred around the time of the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. Those periods ended with peace and prosperity.
If that is to occur again, it’s tough to see now how that endpoint is reached. That suggests that market chaos will be the norm for investors over the next few years before a more favorable outlook comes into play.