Quoth the Raven #290 – Mark Spiegel
Most of the stock market’s extreme valuation and speculative names have been wiped out so far this year. However, there’s still a lot of froth in the markets. That could result in the stock market taking years to recover.
That goes against the grain of much of traditional finance. Typically, bull markets are measured in years. Bear markets are measured in months. But with the extreme activity on the upside, the unwinding could take longer.
One instance of this phenomenon can be seen with Tesla Motors (TSLA). Even before the markets hit their post-pandemic extreme, the electric carmaker was a top stock.
And it managed to see its market cap surge. At its height, it had a value of more than the next top 10 automakers combined. That’s even as the company produced just a fraction of the total cars in the automotive industry.
Where markets can go from here remains unknown. Some are starting to price in the Federal Reserve losing its nerve and ending its interest rate hikes earlier than expected. There could even be rate cuts in the next year depending on economic conditions.
Additionally, energy prices can play a wild card role as well. The jump in oil prices at the start of the year sucked out considerable capital that could have gone elsewhere.