Meet Kevin: This Month Could Be Hell

Economic data continues to show a slowdown in the economy. July will prove a busy month for new information coming in. The month has already shown a slowdown in factory production data, indicating more tough times ahead for the economy.

Other indicators are a bit more mixed. Early jobs data shows that there’s an increase in open jobs available for workers. However, a number of companies are reporting an increase in layoffs.

With rising announced layoffs, the job market is starting to look like the last domino to fall from a strong economy. Rising unemployment at a time when inflation remains high points to ongoing stagflation.

In the meantime, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve for a hint as to when the current rate hike cycle will end. The Fed’s minutes this week indicated that rates will continue to rise rapidly in an effort to crush inflation. The downside? A higher risk of a sharper recession.

Inflation rates continue to rise, even with rising interest rates and a slowing economy. However, economic analysts now predict a further rise for July, with a 8.8 percent year-over-year reading.

Overall, economic conditions indicate that the US is slowing down, and is likely in a recession. The official acknowledgement of that could lead to a further move down in stocks. That would occur as bond prices continue to drop on rising rates.

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