Passive Income

Looking at an Unloved Income Investment

investing

Investing is emotional for many people. Those emotional responses have led to detailed studies in the field of behavioral finance. Researchers have now proven that many of our investment decisions are driven by emotion.

But, even in an area where emotions are common, the depth of emotional responses to one asset class stands out. Many investors either love or hate annuities and few have no opinion on the subject. Because emotions run so high, the question of whether or not an annuity is right for you is often clear.

For many, the answer is no. For many others, the answer is yes. The right answer, for everyone, is that it depends on your personal circumstances.

A Long History

Some sources date this asset class back to ancient Rome. But, the first modern annuity seems to have been developed in France in 1653. That year, a banker named Lorenzo Tonti developed a method for raising money in France called the tontine.

Subscribers purchased shares of the tontine and received a share of the income generated by the underlying investments. This is similar to a modern day mutual fund but with one big difference, as tontine shareholders died off, their income was spread among the surviving investors.

Eventually, the last person alive collected all the benefits. The use of tontines spread to Britain and the United States where governments used them to finance public works projects.

But, eventually the practice was eventually banned “because it created an incentive for shareholders to bump off their partners in exchange for a greater payout.”

A Modern Update

Now, annuities are generally based only on the lifetime of the investor, or joint lives in the case of couples. Safeguards exist in modern society to limit the practice of “bumping off partners.”

By definition, an annuity is a contract between an investor and an insurance company where the investor agrees to make a payment and the insurance company agrees to provide income for a certain amount of time or for the life of the investor.

That’s an annuity in the simplest terms possible. But, there are various options to the contract that make the annuity a slightly more complex instrument. Payments could be in a lump sum or over time. The income could be guaranteed for a minimum amount of time and transferable at death or not.

Income can be protected against inflation, or not. The amount of income could also be fixed or it could vary based upon various factors related to changes in the financial markets. Other variations of the contract exist and, in short, annuities are a complex investment in modern terms.

That complexity accounts for some of the emotional responses to the contracts. Each addition to the contract carries a cost. Those costs can add up quickly and it is possible an investor could pay a large amount of money for a relatively small amount of income in some cases.

However, that complexity allows for many investors to build the product that is exactly right for them. Some investors will find potential tax savings and guaranteed income that is protected against inflation to be important and they understand those benefits carry a cost.

The Pros of Annuities

Taxes are another complex and emotional issue for investors and annuities, like other investments, have tax consequences that should be considered by potential investors. There are pros and cons associated with tax issues.

Annuities can grow tax deferred, but there could be tax penalties if the funds are accessed early. This is a situation that requires an investor to honestly appraise their circumstances. If they may need access to cash quickly, an annuity or other tax sheltered plan may not be right for them even though that is an advantage for other investors.

Perhaps the biggest advantage of annuities is the fact that they offer guaranteed income. If your goal is to have income during retirement years, you may focus on investment returns and believe the biggest risk is a market crash. In reality, the biggest risk an investor faces could be longevity risk.

Longevity risk is the risk that an investor outlives their money. As health care advances and helps individuals live longer, longevity risk increases. It’s possible, even with a low withdrawal rate, that retirement savings can run out well before an individual quality of life deteriorates.

Annuities can be structured to provide guaranteed income for life, effectively eliminating longevity risk. This is an advantage that is important to consider.

The Cons of Annuities

One of the underlying factors for the negative emotional response to annuities is the costs associated with the products. There have been some companies that offered unusually high cost products in the past and there are still some relatively expensive products in the market.

Research can guard against this. But, expect to face some complex information when looking at fees. Vanguard is a low cost provider and an excellent company that makes disclosures as clear as possible. The firm notes:

“The Vanguard Variable Annuity has an average expense ratio of 0.52%, versus the annuity industry average of 2.26%—excludes fees for optional riders. Actual expense ratios for the Vanguard Variable Annuity range from 0.40% to 0.71%, depending on the investment allocation. The expense ratio includes an administrative fee of 0.10% and a mortality and expense risk fee of 0.19%. The expense ratio excludes additional fees that would apply if the Return of Premium death benefit rider or Secure Income (Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit) rider is elected. In addition, contracts with balances under $25,000 are subject to a $25 annual maintenance fee.”

As you can see, the clear disclosure still requires some level of analysis. The lowest cost annuity will not offer some of the benefits in the form of riders that could be attractive to many investors. There could also be annual fees associated with the account no matter which company offers the product.

Are Annuities Right for You?

After doing your research, it could be that an annuity makes sense for you. If that’s the case, more research will be needed. Annuities are available for low minimums of just a few hundred dollars. Low cost annuities are also available.

Annuities could be right for you, especially if longevity risk is a primary concern and especially if assured income is a top priority.

Stock Picks

Conflicts, highlight investment opportunities

Syria""

Last weekend, President Trump ordered military strikes in Syria, a response to the Syrian government’s decision to launch a chemical attack earlier this month. The U.S. action included the launch of 105 missiles, fired by U.S, French and British forces.

The U.S. and allied action was met with protests from Russia, which supports the Syrian government and has a number of forces in the country. Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, warned that his country’s “worst apprehensions have come true” with the attack on Syria.

Antonov’s statement also warned that unspecified “consequences” were likely to follow.

This was met with comments from the U.S Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, who said the Treasury Secretary would soon announce fresh sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting “companies that were dealing with equipment related to Assad and chemical weapons use.”

After that statement, Trump reportedly decided to delay action against Russia.

Adding to the confusion, Defense Secretary James Mattis characterized the strikes as a “one time shot.” President Trump, however, noted that the United States was “prepared to sustain this response until the Syrian regime stops its use of prohibited chemical agents.”

For traders, all of this confusion offers opportunities.

Missiles Need To Be Replenished

For now, no one knows what will happen next in Syria. It could evolve into an extended conflict, either purposefully or by accident. There could also be a maintenance of the status quo with sporadic strikes like the two that Trump has authorized since he took office.

It seems unlikely that there will be widespread peace and calm in the short term. However, stock prices did rally on the news that the U.S. had acted, perhaps in relief that precision strikes were used in what many analysts agree was a proportionate response.

One analyst attributed the rally to the fact that “geopolitical conditions calmed.” Although the situation is calmer, it has not been defused. Given the likelihood of continued tensions, investors should consider defense stocks.   

Among the considerations for investors is the fact that 19 Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) and 66 Tomahawk cruise missiles made by Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) will likely need to be replaced.

LMT has been in a strong up trend.

LMT

LMT is trading with a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of about 26 but analysts expect it to grow its earnings per share by an average of about 46% a year. This is due partly to the increase in the defense budget that was recently approved. The stock also offers a yield of about 2%.

It is important to remember that any U.S. fighter jets conducting airstrikes in Syria could be threatened by Russia’s effective S-400 long-range air defense missile system, which is deployed in western Syria near the Turkish border.

Analysts and military officials believe that Lockheed’s F-22 and F-35 are among the few aircraft effective against the S-400 due to their stealth capabilities. Northrop’s B-2 bomber could also be used in this environment according to the analysts.

RTN is also in a long term up trend.

RTN

This stock may not be as attractive to value investors as LMT. RTN trades with a P/E ratio of almost 30 and analysts expect earning growth to average about 17% a year. The dividend yield is about 1.6%.

Other Defense Contractors to Consider

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), as mentioned above, makes the B-2 stealth bomber, an aircraft suitable for operations in almost any operating environment around the world. In addition to the B-2, the company is working on the Air Force’s next long range bomber.

The Long Range Strike Bomber program (LRS-B) is a development and acquisition program to develop a long-range strategic bomber for the United States Air Force, intended to be a heavy-payload stealth aircraft capable of delivering thermonuclear weapons.

Initial capability is planned for the mid-2020s. The Air Force plans to purchase 80–100 LRS-B aircraft at a cost of $550 million each (2010 dollars). A development contract was awarded to Northrop Grumman for its B-21 Raider in October 2015.

The initial value of the contract is $21.4 billion, but the deal could eventually be worth up to $80 billion. In November 2017, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the total cost of the bomber to be $97 billion, $69 billion of which are attributed to development costs.

The head of the US Air Force Global Strike Command expects that 100 B-21 bombers is the minimum ordered and envisions some 175–200 bombers in service. Experts speculate that the bomber could also be used as an intelligence gatherer, battle manager, and interceptor aircraft.

The chart of NOC shows the now familiar pattern of other defense contractors.

NOC

The P/E ratio of the stock is about 27 and the dividend yield is near 1.3%. Analysts expect earnings per share growth to average about 13% in the future.

While these are the three leaders in the defense sector, they are each fairly high priced and that could make them unappealing to smaller investors. To overcome this problem, smaller investors could consider options strategies.

Buying a call option could provide exposure to the stock with less capital. Using spreads and other advanced strategies could also provide exposure without a large capital outlay. Options strategies also often have limited risk which could be appealing to any investor.

Another way to obtain exposure to the sector is with exchange traded funds. Trading candidates for this strategy include SPDR Kensho Future Security ETF (NYSE: XKFS) or iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE: ITA).

XKFS could be considered the more aggressive of the two but its also significantly smaller with assets of about $6 million compared to more than $5 billion in ITA. Smaller ETFs can be folded by their sponsor which could result in a forced sale or a period of time when the capital is not available to investors.

To avoid those risks, ITA could be the best choice. But, whatever choice an investor ultimately makes, defense stocks should be considered since the likelihood of global tensions remains high and the prospects of widespread peace seem remote.

 

Value Investing

Bloomberg Shows Stocks Can Gain 40%

Source: Bloomberg.com

Some market research is truly more important than others. Generally, long term forecasts will have more value than very short term forecasts for individual investors since their trading costs will be high and access to rapid trade execution will be small.

In a similar manner, analysis by those who have been involved in the market for years will generally be more valuable than those providing analysis on a part time basis and with a focus on buzz words rather than history.

Finally, some sources simply should not be ignored. One of those sources is Bloomberg, a news service that has access to the best analysis. The firm also has access to any research that it believes will have value. So, when Bloomberg notes that a fundamental indicator is deeply undervalued, it’s important to take notice.

An Obscure Indicator Is Undervalued

Bloomberg recently reported that the PEG ratio is at a multiyear low. Before looking at what that means, let’s start with details on what the PEG ratio is.

The PEG ratio compares a stock’s or an index’s price to earnings (P/E) ratio to the expected growth rate of earnings per share (EPS). The PEG ratio is an adaptive indicator since it adapts to the growth of a company to help determine whether the stock is undervalued or not.

This is important because it is possible a low P/E ratio, the traditional way to determine value, could be justified. Assume that a stock has a P/E ratio of 3. If the company is in bankruptcy and the stock price is destined to move to zero, the low P/E ratio doesn’t provide useful information.

That is an extreme example. But, consider a P/E ratio of 8 for a stock and assume the company is financially and likely to maintain its current level of sales and earnings for at least the next ten years. The P/E ratio of 8, in this case, might not represent a bargain.

Yes, the company is not likely to fail and the stock is unlikely to go to zero. But, the company is not growing and that indicates the stock price may not grow. The PEG ratio offers a way to determine when a P/E ratio is truly low.

Finding the PEG Ratio

The PEG ratio recognizes that investors are willing to pay a premium for growth. In fact, companies growing earnings at 45% a year, for example, should have a higher P/E ratio than a company that is growing earnings at 1% a year or a company with earnings per share that are contracting.

The PEG ratio provides a way to quantify value and growth. The ratio is found by dividing the P/E ratio by the  expected EPS growth rate.

PEG ratio

A ratio of 1.0 indicates a stock is fairly valued. PEG ratios less than 1 highlight stocks that are undervalued no matter what their P/E ratio is. Some analysts argue that PEG ratios greater than 1 show a stock is potentially overvalued.

But, over the long run, the PEG ratio of the S&P 500 index has averaged 1.4. It could be best to use a cut off value closer to 1.5.

The Current Picture

Bloomberg noted that now, the PEG ratio for the S&P 500 index is equal to 0.62. This is its lowest level since the bull market began in 2009.

PEG ratio

Source: Bloomberg

The ratio is low right now because earnings growth is expected to be high. Let’s look at the values for the PEG ratio to determine whether or not it is providing an important buy signal.

Bloomberg used the forward P/E ratio in their calculation. This is the P/E ratio using the current price and the EPS that are expected over the next twelve months. The current forwards P/E ratio is about 16.5, down from 18.1 after the sharp market sell off of the past few months.

The denominator in the formula, the expected rate of EPS growth is 27%, an unusually high value. The analyst notes, “But a lot of that growth isn’t sustainable. Much of it is coming from the tax cut. By the end of next year, earnings growth is expected to slow to just 11 percent.”

Of course, the EPS growth rate could be lower than expected. Wall Street analysts have generally overestimated earnings as the next chart shows.

earnings estimates

Source: Bloomberg

However, this time could be different. Much of the expected increase in earnings for the next year is due to tax reform. This is a permanent change in the company’s financials, or at least as permanent as anything related to the tax code can be.

That means that analysts are likely going to be proven correct that earnings growth will be much larger than average this year. And, that should push stock prices up significantly, even if earnings growth does drop back towards the average.

An Average PEG Ratio Indicates Stocks Should Rise

As the first chart above shows, the PEG ratio shares the mean reverting behavior of many other fundamental indicators. Mean reversion means that the indicator moves from below average to above average in a never ending cycle of movements.

Right now, it is below average. One year from now, it is likely to be higher as it reverts to the mean, which is a value of 1.4.

One year from now, uses Bloomberg’s estimates for earnings, the S&P 500 would have a value of 2,745 if the PEG ratio moves up to 1.4 and earnings estimates remain unchanged. This is above the current value of the index and confirms the S&P 500 is undervalued.

However, mean reverting indicators typically overshoot the average, or the mean. It is likely the PEG ratio will rise above its long term average of 1.4 and that indicates the S&P 500 is likely to be above 2,745 a year from now.

The index will not move straight up. It almost never does. There will be ups and downs but valuations indicate the index is likely to be higher one year from now, making now an ideal time for investors to establish positions in undervalued individual stocks.

 

 

 

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto Demonstrates Its Value in the Syrian Crisis

Many investors look at gold as a hedge against international turmoil. That thesis is likely to be put to the test, again. Tensions in Syria could roil markets, but, it’s actually much more than a potential military engagement in Syria.

Syria has become a battleground for foreign powers, similar to the proxy wars the world experienced during the Cold War. The United States and the Soviet Union faced off against each other in various ways at that time, often using foreign lands in their rivalry with Korea serving as a notable example.

The Soviet Union was not an official combatant in the Korean War that began in 1950. But, historians note, the Soviet Union played a significant, covert role in the conflict, providing material and medical services, as well as Soviet pilots and aircraft to aid the North Korean-Chinese forces.

Russia, the successor to the Soviet Union, is now engaged in Syria, providing support to the government of that beleaguered nation. Now, there are fears of escalation as Russian and U.S. officials engage in heated rhetoric. The chance of miscalculation is high.

US airstrikes

Source: DailyMail.co.uk

Flight to Safety Trades

In this environment, traders have traditionally swarmed to gold. There has been increased volatility in gold, but the gains have been short lived.

GLD

However, bitcoin has fared better in this environment.

Bitcoin futures

There are some important reasons to expect bitcoin and other cryptos to be the safe haven trade in the current crisis.

Sanctions Could Fuel Demand for Bitcoin

Earlier this month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions against more than three dozen Russian individuals and entities, targeting senior Russian government officials as well as some of President Vladimir Putin’s closest business allies and the companies they own.

The action is one of the administration’s toughest punitive measures against Russia to date. U.S. officials say it is a response to Russian aggressions, including meddling in U.S. elections, cyberattacks on critical U.S. infrastructure, the Kremlin’s military intervention in Ukraine, and supplying bombs and materiel to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“What we would like to see is the totality of the Russian behavior change,” said White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders. “We want to continue having conversations and work forward to building a better relationship.”

The targets are some of the richest individuals in Russia, and there is a possibility these individuals could use cryptocurrencies to move wealth, in defiance of the sanctions.

There is a precedent for using crypto currencies to evade sanctions to some degree.

As Vox reported in another example of sanctions, “The problem is North Korea can partially skirt financial restrictions with cryptocurrencies, an online form of money, according to Priscilla Moriuchi, formerly a top National Security Agency official charged with overseeing cyber threats from East Asia.

Moriuchi, who is now at the digital intelligence firm Recorded Future, estimates that North Korea earns between $15 million and $200 million by creating and selling cryptocurrencies and then turning it into hard cash.

That’s not enough money to fully fund North Korea’s weapons programs, to be sure, but it ensures they don’t completely shut down.

So even though sanctions hurt North Korea’s physical economy, there are currently few ways America can curb Pyongyang’s growing digital economy. That means North Korea has an even greater ability to keep its nuclear program running than we might think.

“I would bet that these coins are being turned into something — currency or physical goods — that are supporting North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile program,” Moriuchi told Vox.”

The Impact Could Be Large

Sanctions are targeting Russian individuals with billions of dollars. Russian billionaires have long used foreign markets as part of their investment strategy, buying large and expensive homes in London and New York City, for example.

Because they have so much money to invest, it makes sense to think of them the way that Warren Buffett thinks about stocks. Buffett has written that he is only interested in large acquisitions, “The larger the company, the greater will be our interest: We would like to make an acquisition in the $5-20 billion range.”

The reason for that is fairly straightforward. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is a $500 billion company. Even if Buffett found a wonderful company worth $1 million, it would not have a significant impact on Berkshire’s operations.

We can assume that the company grows its earnings by 50% a year for the next five years and at the end of that time, the company would be worth $7.6 million, assuming the company’s value grows at the same rate as the earnings.

This incredible investment would have a 0.0015% impact on Berkshire Hathaway’s value. This demonstrates that Buffett simply cannot look at extremely small deals since they have such a negligible impact on the company’s value.

The same would be true of Russian oligarchs using cryptos. There are thousands of potential investments but the small ones would not be suitable investments for billionaires. They would move the market price too much in trying to buy or sell a small crypto.

Understandably, they would need to focus on the lager cryptos. Using an arbitrary cutoff value of $5 billion market cap, the largest coins would be:

largest coins

Now, these are volatile markets and there could certainly be more cryptos of that size. There could also be less currencies of that size as volatility both adds to and subtracts from the market capitalization of cryptos.

However, the lesson for small investors could be to follow in the footsteps of billionaires. Although we don’t know if there are billionaires involved in the crypto markets, we know that if they choose to access the markets, they will; be buying and selling the largest cryptos.

Smaller markets could offer excellent returns, but the safest returns are likely in the largest asset classes. Bitcoin can and has moved more than 10% in a day, but the liquidity makes it tradable in case an investor chooses to exit the market.

Billionaires, and small investors, should always plan exit strategies before they enter a market.

 

 

 

Weekly Recap

Weekly Review

Crypto Markets Are Moving Towards Stability

Markets evolve. That’s always been true, but investors tend to forget that important lesson when a new market seems to create opportunities that aren’t based on the same set of rules as other markets. That’s what happened with cryptocurrencies.

Markets for bitcoin and alternative currencies developed quickly, yet those markets are moving to stability. You can read more here.

Warren Buffett’s Secret Way of Thinking About Stocks

Warren Buffett may be the most successful investor of all time.  But, the methods he uses are not publicized.

Fortunately, someone who spent more than a decade with Buffett shared details on his techniques and we outline those in this article.

Trade Woes Will Drive Stocks, and These Stocks Could Be the Winners

Stocks have been rallying after fears of a trade war between the United States and China eased.

Reports noted that, “Wall Street cheered news that Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a friendlier tone on tariffs in a speech Tuesday. Xi said China will seek to boost imports and take other steps to bolster international trade and China’s financial markets.

To learn more about the stocks that could be winners in the current market environment, click here.

Income From Oil, Without Investing in the High Cost Oil Producers

Energy investments are appealing for a number of reasons. They are a hedge against inflation, at least in part. This is because inflation has almost always been associated with higher energy prices. This relationship still holds, for now, but may change as alternative energy sources increase production.

If you are interested in earning income from oil without breaking the bank, check out our recent article.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passive Income

Income From Oil, Without Investing in the High Cost Oil Producers

Energy investments are appealing for a number of reasons. They are a hedge against inflation, at least in part. This is because inflation has almost always been associated with higher energy prices. This relationship still holds, for now, but may change as alternative energy sources increase production.

These investments are also a bet on economic growth. As economies grow, they use more energy. This is a relationship that seems unlikely to change although more efficient technologies may mean that growth in energy consumption is smaller than it would have been in the past.

Many energy investments have also provided income. This is because many of the producers are mature companies with extensive infrastructure that has been paid for. These companies then return capital to share holders, often through dividends.

Infrastructure assets are expensive and were once viewed as an important component of returns to the oil and gas companies. But, in recent years, companies have been lowering the value of those assets, in accounting terms, writing down the value of the assets.

billions lost

Source: The Wall Street Journal

This trend leaves investors wondering if investments in energy infrastructure is attractive. Fortunately, there are investments in the sector that don’t involve buying the assets.

Buying the Income Stream

An asset class known as royalty trusts provides an interesting alternative. Royalty trusts generally invest in the energy sector.

The idea of a royalty trust is similar to the idea of allowing an oil company to drill in your backyard. That is actually not a farfetched idea since new fracking technology has allowed drillers to place wells on individual’s property.

In this case, the oil company would pay for the equipment and all required maintenance and operating costs. You, as the property owner would receive a share of the income but carry none of the risks. You would be enjoying royalties from the energy production.

Now, production will vary over time. And, that means the income from these investments will vary over time.

Royalty trusts are a pass through investment. Income from oil and gas fields, coal mines or other commodities passes through the trust to the trust’s investors. In this way, royalty trusts are similar to master limited partnership or MLPs.

Like an MLP, the trusts are traded like stocks. Both can provide significant income and both carry favorable tax treatment, at least for some investors. You should check with your personal tax adviser before investing in this, or any asset class since all tax situations are unique.

The major difference between the two investments is that MLPs own infrastructure like pipelines, generate revenue by charging a fee for others to use the asset. Royalty trusts own the rights to cash flow from production facilities themselves, like wells and mines.

MLP revenues will generally be locked into long term contracts. This prevents large swings in income for investors. With royalty trusts, income will vary from quarter to quarter, based on the performance of the commodity.

Royalty trusts are a way that producers can finance production. “It is common for numerous oil and gas producers to sell their producing assets to a royalty trust,” one expert noted.

“By doing this, the company has created a revenue stream that investors can then buy into. From there, all the royalties produced in the trust are distributed to the shareholders as income. Simply put, purchasing into a royalty trust is like purchasing specific cash flows.”

A Specific Trust Investment

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: SJT) owns royalties from working, royalty and other oil and natural gas interests owned by Southland Royalty Company, the predecessor to Burlington Resources Oil & Gas Company LP, in properties located in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico.

Almost all of its assets, 99% of the trust’s estimated proved reserves, consisted of natural gas reserves. SJT was founded in 1980 and is expected to continue operating for another 10 to 15 years.

SJT has been trading in a relatively narrow range for several years but has been volatile in the past.

SJT

The distributions, however, have been in a generally rising trend.

distribution per unit

The current yield is about 11.2%. This is well above the historic yield which has averaged 6.1% over the past seven years. The high yield could indicate the trust is undervalued or that the distributions are likely to decline.

SJT makes monthly distributions. The amounts vary and it’s reasonable to factor a negative outlook into the decision process. Assuming the distribution is half of last year’s level, the yield would drop to about 6%. That is still above average, but much lower than the current yield.

Advantages of royalty trusts include high yield because trusts are required to pay out essentially all of their cash flow as distributions. Because of this, nearly all royalty trusts with ongoing operations have above average yields.

Due to depreciation and depletion, distributions from most trusts are not considered income in the eyes of the IRS. Rather, the cash distributions are used to reduce an owner’s cost basis in the stock, which is then taxed at the lower capital gains rate and is deferred until an owner sells.

The trusts pay no corporate income tax which increases the amount of cash flow available for distributions. The trusts also benefit from a number of tax credits, although these can change as tax laws are changed.

Royalty trusts are a pure play on commodities. The distributions vary with the price of commodities. This means they can be volatile.

Royalty trusts will not be the best choice for all income investors. But, SJT is trading near $7 and the current yield is more than 11%. Its low price makes it accessible to small investors who have few opportunities for double digit yields.

While it can be tempting for small investors, the tax situation must be considered. There will be extra forms and if a tax preparer is used, this could lead to higher costs. If software is used, it could require an upgrade to the basic software. These costs could offset the income for some investors.

 

Stock Picks

Trade Woes Will Drive Stocks, and These Stocks Could Be the Winners

Stocks have been rallying after fears of a trade war between the United States and China eased.

Reports noted that, “Wall Street cheered news that Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a friendlier tone on tariffs in a speech Tuesday. Xi said China will seek to boost imports and take other steps to bolster international trade and China’s financial markets.

Reports said Xi explicitly singled out the auto industry, promising “significantly lower” tariffs on auto imports this year. Automakers were one of today’s best-performing industry groups, up nearly 5%.”

Moving higher on that news were auto makers including General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA).

Opening Access to China Could Boost Sales

Other reports indicated that Xi had simply reaffirmed plans to liberalize the auto market and lower tariffs on imported cars.

“China’s door of opening up will not be closed and will only open wider,” Xi was quoted as saying in a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual summit that has been compared to the Davos economic forum.

In addition to promising lower tariffs, Xi said China will relax foreign ownership limits on joint ventures with local car companies. Currently, China limits global automakers to owning no more than 50% of a joint venture with a Chinese partner.

However, both pledges were originally made in November, and Xi didn’t offer any new details this week. Still, Xi’s remarks soothed escalating fears of a trade war, a week after China threatened to double import tariffs on automobiles in response to President Trump’s tariff moves.

Shares of GM seemed to be rallying off of a bottom after the news.

GM

Fiat Chrysler (NYSE: FCAU) also offers a bullish chart pattern.

FCAU

China’s conciliatory move follows President Trump’s tweeting that “When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2-1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%.”

The tweet echoed an earlier one from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who seeks to open up a China factory but is leery of China’s foreign ownership rules. TSLA is also benefitting from the news but that stock trades at a premium to other auto makers and may not be suitable for conservative investors.

China, the world’s top auto market, is critical to global automakers. GM and its local joint ventures sold more than 4 million cars in China last year.

Boeing Also Gets a Boost From the News

Another company benefiting a lot from the thaw in trade relations was Boeing (NYSE: BA). The plane manufacturer recently received a major order from Indonesia’s Lion Air for fifty 737 MAX 10 jets with a list price of $6.24 billion. Lion Air also said it will place a provisional order for 787 widebody jets.

Lion Air co-founder Rusdi Kirana declined to say how many 787s will be ordered but he told Reuters a memorandum of understanding for the purchase would be announced in “two to three weeks.” Lion Air is one of Boeing’s largest customers. Earlier this year Lion was the first global carrier to take delivery of the smaller 737 MAX 9.

Boeing senior vice president for Asia Pacific and India sales Dinesh Keskar said the 737 MAX 10 is due to be certified by regulators in 2020. Lion Air should receive its first Max 10 jets soon after that.

A large order such as this one is often heavily discounted. But, they still provide a boost for manufacturers and establish a long term need for parts and service contracts.

Beyond China, Boeing also announced a preliminary deal with Qatar Airways for five 777 freighters worth $1.7 billion. All told, Boeing said it booked 221 net commercial aircraft orders in the first quarter of 2018, down from 414 in the fourth quarter of last year but up from 198 in the first quarter a year ago.

Deliveries were up as well. Boeing delivered 184 planes to customers in the first three months of the year, an increase of 25 compared to the same period in 2017. The company’s backlog of orders dipped by 66 to 5,835 aircraft after adopting a new revenue-accounting standard.

Also benefiting Boeing are problems as at its largest competitor. Airbus has unexpectedly shelved plans for a proposed A320neo-plus and A321neo-plus, Reuters reported.

The plan was to lengthen and modernize both models. But Airbus is struggling to increase output for the current versions. “The ramp-up is not going as well as hoped,” a person with knowledge of the supply chain told Reuters. Airbus declined to comment.

BA has been a market leader in the past year.

BA

The strong gains have pushed the stock up to a level where investors could be best served by waiting for a pullback. BA is priced at about 24 times next year’s estimated earnings. Over the past five years, the stock has traded with an average price to earnings (P/E) ratio of about 18.

Another reason for caution is the fact that Boeing is also among the companies most at risk of a trade war. Beijing included aerospace among the 106 U.S. products targeted under China’s proposed tariffs. That was in retaliation for Trump tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, mostly high-tech and telecom gear. China’s retaliatory tariffs came less than six months after Boeing received a $37 billion jet order from China.

Boeing is selling 300 planes to the China Aviation Supplies Holding Co., assuming the trade negotiations continue on a conciliatory path.

Other companies that could benefit from a thaw in the trade war rhetoric include General Electric (NYSE: GE), which makes engines with partner Safran. The GE-Safran venture, CFM International, makes engines for the 737 Max.

United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) also makes jet engines through its Pratt & Whitney unit.

This is a dynamic situation and it will challenge investors for some time. Short term traders will adapt to the news, as it breaks. Long term investors should consider creating a buy list and adding value stocks if they fall on news in the weeks ahead.

 

Value Investing

Warren Buffett’s Secret Way of Thinking About Stocks

Warren Buffett may be the most successful investor of all time.  But, the methods he uses are not publicized. That makes sense. Buffett has no incentive to widely publicize the ideas that made him a billionaire.

It’s often said that nature abhors a vacuum and in the vacuum of knowledge about what Buffett does, a cottage industry of speculation about what he does has developed. This has led to analysts scouring every word Buffett speaks or writes to discern his method.

Among those analysts is someone who was close to Buffett. Mary Buffett spent more than a decade close to the billionaire investor after marrying one of his sons. After divorcing her husband, she wrote a book with David Clark called “Buffettology: The Previously Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett the World’s Most Famous Investor.”

Warren Buffett

The book is unique because she combines Buffett’s public writings with thoughts he may have expressed privately. This book is the only one available from someone who spent time in the Buffett family.

A Disciplined Process

Buffett’s key to success appears to lie in a disciplined strategy. He has told stories of how he refuses to negotiate. He determines what the value of a company is and that is what he is willing to pay. He does not add to that value based on current market conditions as many investors.

That is one of the secrets to thinking like Buffett. He ignores the market when making buy decisions and focuses on value. This explains why he was buying in late 2008, at a time when the market was crashing. He would admit that he might be early, but he was certain there was value.

He was correct that he was early and he was correct that the investments would deliver rewards. He made billions of dollars on those investments.

According to Mary Buffett, Warren focuses on earnings. He considers what a company’s earnings will be ten years in the future. This is in line with the teachings of his mentor, Ben Graham.

Graham wrote the first book on value investing, Security Analysis. That book was first published in the 1930s and is still being updated and rereleased because investment analysts find value in it.

Graham, and his coauthor David Dodd, explained that it is reasonable to project future earnings based on the annual compound rate of return of historical earnings.

Extrapolation of the past will not provide a perfect guide to the future, but it can provide a data point that is worth considering. But, Mary Buffett explains, the earnings should be predictable in the past. She showed an example with two companies. The chart below replicates that idea.

predicting earnings

Company A and Company B begin and end near the same absolute values. But, which would be the better long term investment? Company A would be better to Mary Buffett because the earnings path is predictable.

Thinking Like an Owner

After finding companies with predictable earnings, and that will require some research, investors should then determine what their initial return on investment will be. Here, Mary Buffett advocates considering the earnings to price (E/P) ratio. This is simply the inverse of the popular P/E ratio.

Let’s say you bought one share of Company A when it was trading at a price of $14.50. The E/P ratio would be 10%:

E/P ratio

Now, compare this to alternative investments, thinking ahead.

This investment returns 10% a year and if earnings grow at 3% a year, then in ten years the rate of return on the initial investment will be about 13.4% a year.

Let’s consider an alternative investment that is offering an initial return on investment of just 3.5% a year. But, growth is expected to average 17% a year over the next ten years. This stock would deliver a return of 16.8% a year after ten years.

If you are truly a long term investor, the second company could be the better investment. If you are a more conservative investor, the slow but steady growth of the second company could be more appealing.

Putting Buffettology Into Practice

This problem shows that at least some investors aren’t thinking like Buffett. Many investors focus on the value they are receiving today, not the value they will receive ten years from now. Buffett is truly a long term investor whereas many of us who say we are long term investors are looking at short term data.

Buffettology shows that thinking like Buffett will require work. Remember, Buffett is holding a large amount of cash because he isn’t able to find investments that deliver sufficient returns. He is looking, but he is not finding value.

However, he is looking. He knows the type of company he wants, and he probably knows how much he is willing to pay for many of those companies. He’s ready, and we can be ready as well.

To think like Buffett, decide which companies you believe would make good long term investments. Perhaps it’s retailers since they are a beaten down sector.

Then, look at the past seven to ten years of earnings for those companies. You should be looking for predictability rather than wide swings in the annual earnings per share.

These steps will take some effort. But, Buffett devotes a great deal of time to finding winning investments. The truth is there are no shortcuts to investment success.

After finding the list of companies you believe have predictable earnings, consider what each one will be earning in seven to ten years. You could use the historic growth rate, analysts’ expected growth rates, half of the historic growth rate to be conservative or some other value.

Multiply expected earnings by a P/E ratio that is conservative. It could be the historic average ratio or a conservative assumption like 12 or 15, in line with average ratio of the stock market.

The future value should be at least double the current value. This will provide an average annual return of about 7%, plus any dividends. This would grow wealth over time.

This process could be automated or could be manual. It will require effort, but it could deliver long term returns like those enjoyed by Warren Buffett.

 

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto Markets Are Moving Towards Stability

Markets evolve. That’s always been true but investors tend to forget that important lesson when a new market seems to create opportunities that aren’t based on the same set of rules as other markets. That’s what happened with cryptocurrencies.

Markets for bitcoin and alternative currencies developed quickly. Cryptos, as they are called, are a revolutionary technology and they could potentially change the face of commerce. This is new and exciting and some investors rushed in.

Prices soared as new investors entered the market. And, then, prices collapsed.

Bitcoin futures

In hindsight, it all seems inevitable. The price rise was steep and it showed signs of a bubble. The collapse of a bubble is inevitable. And, now, investors are avoiding the market, concerned about further declines.

It all seems unprecedented, but, of course, it is not unprecedented. Market historians have seen this pattern before.

New Markets Create a Familiar Pattern

Rather than reviewing the story of a bubble you may remember, and even have participated in, let’s start with a bubble far from recent memory to show that unchanging nature of the pattern. University of Minnesota professor Andrew Odlyzko explains:

“The British Railway Mania of the 1840s was by many measures the greatest technology mania in history, and its collapse was one of the greatest financial crashes. It has attracted surprisingly little scholarly interest.

In particular, it has not been noted that it provides a convincing demonstration of market inefficiency. There were trustworthy quantitative measures to show investors (who included Charles Darwin, John Stuart Mill, and the Bronte sisters) that there would not be enough demand for railway transport to provide the expected revenues and profits.

But the power of the revolutionary new technology, assisted by artful manipulation of public perception by interested parties, induced a collective hallucination that made investors ignore such considerations. They persisted in ignoring them for several years, until the lines were placed in service and the inevitable disaster struck.”

Those are the opening lines of his paper, “Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s.” The chart below, also from that paper shows the hallmark of both a new technology bubble and the financial bubble that accompanies the mania.

British Railway Mania

Source: Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets

Investment in the technology comes first. Then, some time after that, investment in the financial markets becomes exuberant. Investors realize that the technology is a game changer and commerce will be forever changed.

In this case, it was railroads, an afterthought to the modern investor. But, in 1830, the new technology was connecting cities and shrinking travel times like never before. Farmers would be able to sell their products in distant markets and manufacturers were able to locate where it made sense to.

No one would be limited by geography anymore. It was, perhaps, the greatest revolution in technology since the canal bubble that had unfolded at the beginning of the century.

global financial data

Source: Global Financial Data

History Repeats

Bubbles have formed since at least the 1600s and they have also occurred in more recent times. The Internet bubble of the late 1990s is an example of a technology bubble that followed the same pattern as canals and railroads. So is the subprime mortgage bubble that led to the collapse of the global credit markets in 2008.

Investors create these bubbles time and time again. They seem to forget the lessons of the past as they get caught up in irrational exuberance only to suffer the same fate at the end of the bubble as they have in all of the previous occurrences.

But, the popping of the bubble isn’t always the end of the story. In hindsight, it often turns out that the exuberance was justified.

Railroads and canals did change commerce. So did the Internet and so did subprime mortgages. But, it wasn’t always the first mover that changed commerce. New markets always include companies that will make mistakes. They always include investors that will make mistakes.

The collapse that follows the bubble is a shakeout. It can be thought of as the creative destruction that the Austrian school economist Joseph Schumpeter considered to be vital to a growing economy.

Schumpeter noted, “the essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process.” Creative destruction is the “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.”

Some companies will survive the process. A recent example is Amazon.com. A logarithmic scale is used in the next chart to show the decline in the stock. A log chart shows percentage changes as equal on the vertical axis of the chart.

AMZN

Amazon has gained more than 65,000% since it began trading. But, enjoying that gain meant sitting through a 93% decline in value as the internet bubble collapsed. Investors who bought the top would wait until 2007 to break even. They then promptly endured another decline of 55% after that.

Lessons From the Past For Crypto Investors

Like canals, railroads and internet companies, cryptos have the potential to change the way business is conducted. They could create new opportunities for businesses and they could deliver outstanding returns in the long run.

And, they are following the same pattern seen in each of those previous technologies. The infrastructure for crypto was built up over the past decade. Then, investors jumped into the market while it was still immature.

Their demand pushed prices up quickly, at a faster pace than was warranted by the technology. The crash was inevitable and it was part of a maturation process. Now, there is a shakeout and there are likely to be a large number of losses.

There are also likely to be some large winners, the Amazons of the crypto world, if you will. It will take time and research to find these winners but it will be worth the trouble if history is a guide. And, as successful investors know, history is in fact a profitable guide to the present.

 

 

Weekly Recap

Weekly Review

weekly review

Cryptocurrencies Could Factor Into the Next Trade War

It was just a few years ago that trade wars seemed to be a subject confined to the history books. The devastating impact of trade wars in the 1930s demonstrated that actions taken to restrict trade could hurt economic growth. In this article, we discuss the next trade war and the role that cryptocurrencies could play in that trade war. 

The Truth About Value Investing

Value investing works. Plus, it is intellectually appealing. Yet, it is difficult for many individual investors to strictly follow a value investing philosophy in the long run. There are some very good reasons why value investing is so challenging to implement. To learn more about the challenges and how to avoid them, click here.

Stocks Analysts Like, and Some They Dislike

Analysts were generally optimistic after companies reported results last quarter. They were, in fact, historically optimistic. We can see how unusual this is by considering some data. In this article, we dig in to the data and highlight the stocks that analysts like, as well as the ones they do not.

Generate Income Like a Music Star

“Telephone number checks” is one way to describe the income some performers make from royalties. These are checks containing seven digits, as long as a telephone number. Of course, there are a relatively small number of individuals who earn telephone number checks.

But, there are many performers who enjoy smaller royalty streams. They may write a song which gets picked up as the theme song for a television program that airs five days a week, something like ABC’s Good Morning America.

Curious how you could generate income like your favorite music star? Read more, right here.