Passive Income

Can You Really Generate Passive Income from Your Stocks?

Many investors understand the concept of writing options as a way to generate income but wonder if the strategy is truly beneficial. There are, of course, pros and cons to this and every investment strategy. We will take a brief look at this idea, so you can determine if this passive income strategy is right for you.

A Brief Overview of the Strategy

The way the Covered Call Strategies is often presented, it sounds too good to be true. Usually, the explanation includes the facts that you keep the stock you own, you sell calls that are not exercised and generate continuous and high levels of income from the stock.

For example, say you own 100 shares of ABC Company. You bought the shares years ago at $1 and the price is now $25. You want to generate income from the shares but you don’t want to pay taxes on the large gain. So, you sell a covered call.

You believe the stock will move just a small amount over the next few months and sell a call with an exercise price of $30. The stock is trading at $28 when the call expires so you keep the premium of $100 and sell another call.

Sometimes, this happens. But, more often, there are some other outcomes to the strategy.

Let’s start with what might be the biggest problem for many individual investors. In order to sell covered calls, you will need to own at least 100 shares of the stock. 

The need to own at least 100 shares is a potential problem because of the way options contracts are priced. A variety of factors go into the price of the option one of which is the value of the underlying stocks. The higher the stock price is, the more the option will be worth.

This means that a low priced stock, the kind of stock a small investor would be able to buy at least 100 shares of, will have low options premiums. In the market, a stock trading at $25 might offer short term options trading at $0.30 or less. The income on the covered call would be just $30, before commissions.

Commissions will diminish the amount of income and the commissions of options trades can be higher than the commissions on stock trades. Even some of the discount brokers will charge $7 to $10 per contract, or more, when fees are included.

This is important to remember when many options will deliver income of less than $20. Some brokers also charge a fee if the option is exercised.

The Risks of Covered Calls

Even though the costs can be considerable and the income may be small, many investors find covered calls appealing. But, there are important risks to consider. One risk is that the stock price falls and the second risk to consider is that the stock price rises.

Declining prices are a risk of owning a stock. If the stock falls, the income obtained from selling the call will offset the loss to a small degree. But, the covered call may also lead to higher costs if the stock is sold.

Before selling the stock, covered call sellers will need to close their option trade. This can result in more commissions.

Now, if the stock rises, there could also be costs. If the stock is above the exercise price of the covered call at expiration, the stock will be sold. This could result in a tax bill for the trader, in some cases triggering the taxable event the trader was trying to avoid.

Some brokers will charge an exercise fee, and in some cases that fee could be more than the commissions to close the trades would be.

An Alternative

Despite the drawbacks, the idea of the covered call is attractive. It is a way to generate income. But, because of the risks, the strategy will not be right be for everyone. To consider alternatives, we can look at the risk reward payoff diagram for the covered call strategy.

covered call

Source: The Options Industry Council

Notice in the figure above that the payoff is limited and the risk is relatively large. To find an alternative strategy, we can start by locating an options strategy that possesses a similar risk reward profile. The cash secured put, or naked put writing, strategy has the same profile as a covered call.

cash-secured put

 Source: The Options Industry Council

With a cash secured put, you will sell a put option with an exercise price below the current market price. For our purposes, the mechanics of the trade are less important than the risk reward diagram. In the chart above, you can see the reward is the same as the covered call as is the risk.

What’s appealing about the covered call is the reward, so we are happy with that. What we would like to reduce is the risk of the strategy. When selling a put or a call, options traders can always reduce the risks of the strategy by creating a spread.

A spread trade involves selling an option to generate income and then buying a lower priced option to reduce the risk. This strategy caps both the potential risks and rewards as is shown in the next risk and reward payoff diagram.

bull put spread

Source: The Options Industry Council

Spreads may very well accomplish the goals of the covered call seller. They generate income and reduce risk. But, they are not subject to exercise which means they will not trigger a potential tax bill. Also, spreads will not make it more expensive to sell a stock if that is the right thing to do.

Options are a versatile tool for income investors and should be considered as an alternative to covered calls by many investors.

These are the type of strategies that are explained and used in our TradingTips.com’s Options Insider service. To learn more about how options can be used to meet your income and wealth building goals, click here for details on Options Insider.

Stock Picks

This Sector Could Be the Biggest Etail Winner

Etail shipping

Etailers, the companies that sell online products, are adding to the problems of traditional retailers. Some might say that etailers are the reason stores are shutting down at local shopping malls. The truth is etail does have some business advantages.

Traditional stores require sales staff, space to display goods, storage rooms in retail locations, distributions centers and other infrastructure. To sell online, all that’s required is a web site and the ability to ship goods.

These advantages point to a high likelihood of continued problems for traditional retailers and etailers could gain even more market share. But, the winners in the retail sector might not be the companies that sell things.

Shipping Gets the Product to the Customer

Although the struggles of retailers tends to generate emotional responses. Traders need to remain unemotional and think through the issue to find potential trading ideas. In thinking about a company like Amazon.com, one issue is shipping.

Amazon has recently been in the news for its shipping policies. President Trump has argued that Amazon isn’t paying enough to the Post Office to deliver its packages. The company is paying the market rate negotiated with the Post Office and some analysts believe the deal has helped the Post Office,

Rather than dig into how much Amazon pays or should pay, the news is important because it shows that shipping is important to the success of online retailers. This provides an investment opportunity.

According to analysts, transportation logistics companies are the increasingly tech-focused intermediaries that connect businesses with shipping companies, placing goods needing to be moved into the vehicles best able to haul and deliver them.

While we often think of UPS and FedEx when we think of shippers, there are other companies to consider.

Some Shippers to Consider

XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE: XPO) is a global provider of supply chain solutions. The company’s transportation segment provides freight brokerage, last mile, less-than-truckload (LTL), full truckload and global forwarding services.

The logistics segment provides a range of contract logistics services, including highly engineered and customized solutions, value-added warehousing and distribution, cold chain solutions and other inventory solutions.

XPO has more than 10,000 independent owner operators under contract to provide drayage, expedite, last mile and LTL services to its customers.

XPO weekly chart

The stock price recently stalled but the company could be attractive at this level. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $4.15 next year and average growth in EPS of more than 30% a year.

Using the PEG ratio to value a stock, analysts assume the stock is trading at fair value when the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is equal to the EPS growth rate. For XPO, the P/E ratio of 30 would indicate the stock is potentially undervalued by 20% or more.

Another shipping company to consider is Echo Global Logistics, Inc. (Nasdaq: ECHO), a provider of technology-enabled transportation and supply chain management solutions.

ECHO uses a technology platform to compile and analyze data from its multi-modal network of transportation providers to facilitate its transportation and logistics services. The company focuses primarily on arranging transportation by truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) carriers.

It also offers intermodal (which involves moving a shipment by rail and truck), small parcel, domestic air, expedited and international transportation services. The company’s core logistics services include rate negotiation, shipment execution and tracking, carrier selection and management, routing compliance freight bill payment and audit, payment and performance management and reporting functions.

ECHO weekly chart

ECHO is expected to report EPS of $1.67 and grow earnings at an average pace of 31.8% a year. The PEG ratio provides a price target of about $53, almost double the recent price.

While these shipping companies look promising, analysts note that there are questions hanging over the industry. One question is about the role electric trucks, from Tesla and others, and autonomous vehicles will mean for the industry.

Another question is whether or not the companies will have to spend an inordinate amount of money to improve tracking technologies. And, if the technologies become pervasive, there is the concern that tech companies like Amazon could simply displace the shippers.

These questions do hang over the industry in the long run. But, for now, analysts note, “The supply of trailers is tight and demand remains solid. The market could stay that way for 2019, as Washington tries to shape an infrastructure bill that could send more trucks to and from construction sites.”

An analyst with Cowen Securities cited the long term questions and the short term potential of the industry, “I think, ultimately — and I’m talking over the next 25-plus years — you have to start wondering what’s going to happen to your traditional definition of a trucking company.”

Meanwhile, full enforcement of a rule known as the electronic logging device mandate, which requires that truck cabs have an electronic device to record drive times, will take hold in April. Truckers face fines and other penalties if they don’t comply with the measure, potentially keeping them from joining or remaining in the ranks.

As warehouses and trucking fleets strain to handle the extra volume, trucking and logistics companies have been able to charge more for shipping and related services. As for demand, the produce season was strong over the summer, as was the home-and-garden season. Brisk holiday-season e-commerce helped buoy the end of 2017.

“When a new wave of buyers moves to online shopping, it bodes well for our future growth in contract logistics and last mile,” Scott Malat, XPO’s chief strategy officer, said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in February. Schneider, on its earnings call in February, cited a “growing customer pipeline of notable etailers” that it said would help improve margins and be an area of “intense focus” for this year.

The challenge of the long term could be a reason for investors with a time horizon measured in decades to avoid the sector but for investors looking at shorter term gains over the next 6 to 12 months, these could be stocks to consider.

 

 

 

 

 

Value Investing

Traditions Mean Safe Income from These Stocks

dividends

Imagine that you are responsible for making the special dessert at your family’s holiday celebration. Someone has prepared the exact same dessert for more than 50 years, in this case, and last year, an elderly relative gave you the sole copy of the secret recipe.

Now, imagine that you forgot all about that and now, with the holiday just days away, you can’t find the recipe. The tradition is about to be broken unless you can find the recipe. Many people would search everywhere, dedicating as much time as they had to finding that family heirloom. 

If the tradition were broken, it would be the talk of the family. You would be viewed negatively by some, your reputation forever tied to that one thing you didn’t do.

Corporate executives can face a similar problem. Failing to maintain some traditions could besmirch their personal reputation. Given the fact that many executives also own at least some shares of stock in their company, the damages could extend beyond their reputation to their finances.

Given the risks, most individuals and most corporate executives, will do their best to uphold longstanding and important traditions. Individually, a tradition may revolve around family recipes. In the corporate world, the traditions may revolve around the payment of dividends.

Dividends Can Carry Great Significance

There’s an index that highlights companies where reputation risks decrease the possibility of dividend cuts. It’s the S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats index that measure the performance of S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years.

This index includes all of the stocks in the S&P 500 that meet the criteria. It will always include at least 40 stocks. If there are not at least 40 stocks, the index will then include the 40 stocks with the longest streaks of dividend payments, even if the streak is less than 25 years.

This index has a long history of outperforming the broad stock market, according to data from Standard & Poor’s.

Standard & Poor’s

Source: S&P

You can see in the table above that the Dividend Aristocrats has outperformed the S&P 500 over the long term. It’s not a surprise that the dividends constitute a significant portion of the index’s total returns.

The dividends are most likely safe. The CEOs and members of the Boards of Directors of these companies are in the same position as the family member entrusted with the secret recipe. No CEO will want to be the one remembered for cutting the dividend and breaking a tradition.

Cuts are possible. After all, when it comes to financial markets there are rarely, if ever, guarantees. But the CEOs of Dividend Aristocrats can be counted on to cut dividends only as a last resort and truly after all other possible options have been reviewed and most likely tried.

The Dividend Aristocrats

There are a number of well known companies on the list of dividend aristocrats. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) has increased its dividend payments for 57 consecutive years and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has a record of 55 consecutive increases.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) has paid dividends for 127 consecutive years and increasing dividends for 61 consecutive years.

Some companies that seem newer also have long histories of increasing dividends. The hardware retailer Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) has increased its dividend payments for 55 consecutive years.

Any of the companies on the list of aristocrats is a good investment for those seeking safe income. But, even though those stocks pay almost guaranteed income, the stock is still vulnerable to a decline. To limit the risks of a sell off, a diversified basket of dividend paying aristocrats should be considered.

Small investors might not have sufficient capital to buy several dividend paying stocks. But, they could buy an exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Dividend Aristocrats. ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSE: NOBL) is one option.

NOBL is broadly diversified and reasonably valued. The average price to earnings (P/E) ratio of its holdings is 18. The average price to book (P/B) value is 3.6. This a slight premium to the broad stock market because the stocks in NOBL carry some degree of safety.

The dividend yield on NOBL is 1.9%. It is likely that the amount of income received from the ETF will increase in time, making this an attractive opportunity for value investors with a focus on the long term.

An alternative is another ETF, CBOE Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Target Income Index ETF (NYSE: KNG). Over the long run, this index has outperformed the S&P 500 index.

CBOE

Source: CBOE

 

The CBO explains that “the Index is a benchmark index designed to track the performance of a hypothetical buy-write strategy on constituents of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index.” Details on the index include:

“It is designed with the primary goal of generating an annualized level of income that is approximately 3.5% over the annual dividend yield of the S&P 500® Index and a secondary goal of generating price returns that are proportional to the price appreciation of the S&P 500 Index.

The SPAI Index investment strategy includes (1) buying the stocks contained in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index, and (2) partially “writing” (or selling) weekly “covered call” options on each stock, generally on the last trading day of each week.”

While KNG is an interesting idea, the fund is new and relatively thinly traded. Total assets in the fund are about $6 million which could make it difficult for the fund sponsor to maintain the fund. That means there is a risk the ETF could be closed.

If you choose to invest in KNG, you should monitor the news. If the sponsor does close the fund, you should have an opportunity to sell it before the official last day of trading.

Small Caps Also Have Long Histories

If you prefer to trade in individual stocks, there are also small companies that have long histories of paying dividends. The longest streak for publicly traded companies belongs to The York Water Company (Nasdaq: YORW) which began in 1816.

YORW monthly chart

The stock has been in a longstanding up trend, as expected for a value stock with safety. Breaking a tradition that dates back more than 200 years seems to be an unlikely event and if guaranteed income is a primary objective, YORW could be a stock to consider.

Long standing dividends are safe and should be considered by value investors.

To read more about value investing and other income opportunities, click here

Cryptocurrencies

Following the Money In the Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin

Some investors believe it can be useful to follow the “big money” or the “smart money.” To understand the rationale for this, let’s consider the different ways to classify investors in the futures markets.

For futures markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) collects and publishes detailed data on what different traders are doing. The CFTC is the regulator of futures markets, serving a role that is similar to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the stock markets.

Every week, the CFTC releases a report called the Commitment of Traders (COT) which provides insight into the market action. Large traders are required to report their positions every week and this allows the CFTC to classify traders into one of three groups. An example of the raw data is shown below.

trade group raw data

Large speculators are traders holding several thousand contracts in an individual market. These traders include hedge funds and large institutions. Commercial traders are those that use the futures markets to hedge their commercial activities. In grain markets, farmers would be an example of commercials. All other traders are considered to be small speculators.

The COT report identifies the positions of each group. Analysts have developed techniques to analyze this data with some general assumptions.

Generally, commercial traders are considered the “smart money” and small speculators are viewed as the “dumb money.” Commercials are in the best position to understand the market, which makes them the smart money. Small speculators are individual futures traders and they are believed to be wrong more often than they are right, making them the dumb money.

Large speculators tend to be trend followers. They will generally be wrong at major turning points, but they will be on the right side of major trends. For many analysts, this group can be ignored because the opinions of the smart money commercials and dumb money small speculators offers insight.

Why the Smart Money Is Smart

Some traders will argue that hedge funds, one of the groups included in the large speculator category, is not really smart money. Their arguments may be based on the performance of several hedge funds or by indexes tracking the funds that show that hedge funds often lag their benchmarks.

This is true, but irrelevant. There are many hedge funds, and many are small. The smaller funds may or not be successful. If they are successful, they are likely to become large funds. If not, they will either remain small or go out of business.

The smart money is the big money and it becomes big by being smart.

It’s only the large funds that are included in the large speculator category. Small funds will rarely hold enough contracts to report. Now, these funds are often short term traders but the chart below highlights how useful their buying and selling can be.

crude oil weekly chart

The black line is the COT data for large speculators. The line closely tracks the price action with the large specs tending to be buying near bottoms and reducing positions near tops. This is a chart of crude oil futures, but other markets show similar patterns.

Smart Money in Crypto

Recent reports, including reports from mainstream media sources like CNN, indicate that institutional investors that have already invested in crypto assets and are long-term bullish on the industry believe that the Bitcoin price has already bottomed and is likely to end the year at higher prices.

That’s according to an informal survey conducted by Wall Street strategist Fundstrat Global Advisors, a firm that is becoming known as one of the best sources of research on cryptocurrencies in the market.

research on cryptocurrencies

Source: CNN.com

Institutional investors generally control large amounts of capital and collectively, they do have an impact on prices. If they are buying, they tend to push prices up.

The Fundstrat reported that a majority of those surveyed (53%) expect the price of bitcoin to be between $10,000 and $20,000 at the end of the end of the year. Most of the remaining participants expect even higher prices.

The survey found 41% of participants expect bitcoin to end 2018 between $20,000 and $30,000 and 6% are expecting the price to top $30,000. Looking further ahead, 40% expect bitcoin to trade at more than $1 million by the end of 2020.

Fundstrat founder Tom Lee, now recognized personally as one of the most knowledgeable crypto analysts, is among the bulls. His year end target is $25,000 and gains will continue for some time. “We are not staking anything on that, but I think $1mm is possible,” Lee said on Twitter, adding that it’s “not our base case, but certainly possible.”

The Tale of the Chart

If bitcoin has, in fact, formed a bottom, we should see signs of that in the chart. As seen below, there are signs of strength in the market.

strength in Bitcoin

At the bottom of the chart is the stochastics indicator. This indicator is one of many that measures momentum. While stochastics is shown in the chart, the many momentum indicators tend to signal at about the same time. Other popular indicators, like MACD and RSI, show similar patterns.

This is a weekly chart. The selloff pushed the stochastics into an oversold extreme, meaning the price decline was steep and quick. Some traders consider oversold to mean the decline was “too steep and too fast.”

After the indicator becomes oversold, traders are on the lookout for a buy signal. In the chart above, the stochastics crossover, a widely recognized buy signal, occurred and the indicator moved out of the oversold zone.

From a timing perspective, this represents an ideal time to buy. The chart shows that price action is moving up but bitcoin is volatile and a rapid reversal to the down side is always possible.

This could be an ideal time to begin accumulating a position. A trader could buy one part of their position now and use additional weakness to add to their position. If bitcoin rallies, they could buy as the price rises.

Overall, the chart agrees with the smart money that bitcoin is most likely headed higher.

 

 

 

Weekly Recap

Weekly Review

weekly review

How to Avoid Crypto Scams

Investing in cryptocurrencies can be lucrative. Headlines tell of traders making million-dollar fortunes in the markets, with a few individuals believed to have made at least $1 billion in the new markets. Large fortunes often result from new markets.

But, and there is always a “but” when the potential rewards of financial markets are considered, there are also risks. You can read more about those risks and how to avoid them by Clicking Here.

How to Spot the Next GE

General Electric (NYSE: GE) has left some investors reeling. If you’re reading this and you own individual stocks, there is a high probability you own GE. We do know that there will be other stocks like GE, and we share details on how you can spot those stocks Right Here.

The Next Big Trend for Traders Is Another Sin Industry

Among the biggest trends in the stock market in recent years has been marijuana. It has been legalized in many states and in Canada, to varying degrees and legalization created business opportunities. Those businesses largely discovered what analysts expected. Consumers wanted marijuana.

Now, investors are looking for the next big development that could create a similar opportunity and we tell you what that is and which companies to look at, Right Here.

Demographics Highlight an Income Opportunity

Demographics are destiny, according to some analysts. This idea extends far beyond the stock market. Politicians follow demographic trends and some cynics might say they pander to those trends. Other analysts might argue politicians are forced to tailor policies to demographics.

Either way, economic factors are often linked to the financial world and income opportunities are available to investors understanding demographics. We share some of those opportunities, In This Article.

 

 

Passive Income

Demographics Highlight an Income Opportunity

REIT

Demographics are destiny, according to some analysts. This idea extends far beyond the stock market. Politicians follow demographic trends and some cynics might say they pander to those trends. Other analysts might argue politicians are forced to tailor policies to demographics.

For example, Social Security is an important issue because it involves a large group of citizens who vote and because it impacts the budget. A politician, who is also a policy maker, cannot ignore either of those factors. Voters do affect the budget and the budget affects voters. The two are inseparable.

This means we can take the emotions out of demographics and consider the economic implications of shifts in the population. Economic factors are often linked to the financial world and income opportunities are available to investors understanding demographics.

Housing Shifts Create Opportunities

Investors should consider many of the demographic shifts that are underway. Among those are young people burdened with student debt, older people seeking smaller homes to reduce their tax burdens and cost of living, and families forced to share space with other family members because of low wages.

The picture can seem discouraging. But, it also presents opportunities. Many situations involve smaller living spaces than desired. Young people burdened by student debt may be forced to live in a small apartment, for example.

This can lead to placing items in storage and that means using local self storage facilities.

There is an asset class for these facilities known as self storage REITs.

A REIT is a real estate investment trust. A REIT will trade like a stock on an exchange but the underlying asset is a trust rather than an operating company.

REITs own real estate in the trust and are obligated to pass substantially all of their cash flow to investors. The REIT itself is tax advantaged and the cash flow is subject to taxes at the individual’s rate, after substantial accounting adjustments that often reduce the tax burden.

From an investor’s perspective, a REIT is an income investment. The underlying value of the real estate may appreciate and that would add to the potential returns, but REITs are valued for their steady and relatively high levels of income.

Self Storage REITs

The class of self storage REITs allows investors to target their investments towards storage facilities. These are different than many other kinds of real estate.

Apartment complexes are also available through REIT structures. Investors receive substantially all of the REIT’s cash flow as they do with any REIT. But, an apartment complex will require maintenance. And, evicting nonpaying clients could take time and carry high costs.

These costs, and many other costs for repairs and upkeep, reduce the amount of cash flow available for distribution to investors. Self storage facilities have low costs.

Many self storage facilities are inexpensive construction projects. They are generally windowless buildings based on rather large open frame construction designs that are then divided into individual storage spaces.

Many are unheated. Some even lack electricity with all unit doors opening to the outside to eliminate the need for hallway lighting. Doors with locks are the only parts of the buildings that could require repair in the normal course of operations.

Another advantage of these facilities is that they often have lower tax bills than other properties. Self storage facilities can be located in areas with less stringent zoning requirements and therefore have lower tax bills, at times.

However, that advantage may only extend to current assets. As local communities face increasing financial stress, many have limited construction of low cost facilities.

A visible example in many communities is trailer parks which offer affordable, high density housing but face numerous zoning restrictions. Self storage facilities are, in some areas, facing similar restrictions as communities seek to develop a higher tax base with more housing and office space.

This adds to the attractiveness of current self storage REITs.

Specific Strategies

One way to obtain a low cost exposure to the REIT sector is with exchange traded funds. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (NYSE: VNQ) is a $56 billion ETF with broad holdings including self storage REITs along with apartment and office complexes and other types of real estate.

Among the largest self storage REITs are CubeSmart (NYSE: CUBE) Extra Space Storage (NYSE: EXR), and Public Storage (NYSE: PSA).

PSA is among the largest REITs with a $33 billion market cap. It offers a dividend yield of about 4%. The stock price has been in an extended trading range.

PSA weekly

The stock price is relatively high, near $200 a share, and that could make this REIT less attractive to smaller investors. Buying several shares of a high priced stock can reduce a small investor’s ability to diversify their portfolio.

To reduce the impact of this problem, some smaller investors use options. Buying call options, for example, would allow an investor to potentially participate in upside gains in price, but that may not be a prudent choice for REIT investors.

REITs are largely considered to be income investments and the owner of an option does not receive income on their investment. Additionally, an income investment will generally not make large price moves and that will limit the up side potential of options.

For self storage REITs, it could be best to simply look at smaller offerings with stable income that offers above average yields.

ESR has a market cap of more than $11 billion and a yield of about 3.6%. The price has been in a steady uptrend and could be positioned to challenge its all time highs.

EXR weekly

CUBE has a market cap of more than $5 billion and a yield of more than 4%. The share price has been in a trading range for more than two years.

CUBE weekly

Downside risks are most likely limited to the lower edge of the trading range where support is likely to hold prices.

There are other self storage REITs but several are not very liquid. Liquidity is a measure of trading volume and shows how easy it might be to sell. Low liquidity means it could be difficult to sell in a market decline and should generally be avoided by income investors.

The REITs highlighted above offer income opportunities with relative safety and could be an excellent opportunity for income investors.

To learn more about other market related investments and products, Click Here.

 

Stock Picks

The Next Big Trend for Traders Is Another Sin Industry

gambling stocks

Among the biggest trends in the stock market in recent years has been marijuana. It has been legalized in many states and in Canada, to varying degrees and legalization created business opportunities. Those businesses largely discovered what analysts expected.

Consumers wanted marijuana. That meant there was demand for retail operations, producers of products related to the plants, growers and associated supply chain businesses. Governments at all levels wanted taxes, and they found a way to tax the businesses.

It turned out to be a boom for many businesses, and communities have benefited to varying degrees from a new source of tax revenue. It wasn’t that long ago that significant law enforcement resources were dedicated to eradicating the use of marijuana.

The Next Boom Could Be In Gambling

Many of the stocks of marijuana companies have delivered large gains. Now, investors are looking for the next big development that could create a similar opportunity. Smart traders are watching the Supreme Court which could create the next big boom when it issues a ruling in the next couple months.

Court watchers call it, New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association Inc. v. National Collegiate Athletic Association, a case that has been consolidated with Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association.

It was argued in December and involved New Jersey’s challenge to a 1992 federal law that bars states from allowing sports gambling. The state wants to allow betting on sports games. This would include professional and college sports.

One expert summarized the proceedings, “The National Collegiate Athletic Association and the four professional sports leagues countered that the law is perfectly constitutional, because it doesn’t require the states to do anything; it simply bars them from authorizing sports gambling. After an hour of spirited debate today, a majority of the justices seemed inclined to agree with New Jersey.”

For now, betting on sports in some form is legal in four U.S. states, though only Nevada allows full sports books where customers can wager on individual games. That business is growing.

sports betting statistics

Source: Bloomberg

The Future of Gambling

Nevada betting parlors may be showing us how the process will work if the Supreme Court allows gambling to spread.

In Nevada, fans at University of Nevada basketball games or Golden Knights hockey games, for example, can place bets by cellphones. Legal gambling on the Super Bowl was up 15% compared to a year ago.

Gamblers can place bets while a game is being played. If the team a fan originally selected to win is losing, they can gamble at halftime on a different outcome and perhaps recoup their losses. Another type of wager, called a proposition bet, lets customers put money on outcomes other than the winning team, such as who the most valuable player will be.

One fan told Bloomberg, “a lot of times you find value in the game.”

According to experts, the most likely winners from a favorable court decision will be existing operators — casinos, horse tracks and lotteries. Many of these companies, and their suppliers, are already getting in position.

European operators are staking a claim on the U.S. market.  These companies have extensive operations with legal gambling, especially in the United Kingdom.

William Hill Plc, a London-based operator of betting shops, already has a 30% share of the sports betting market in Nevada, where it runs sports books for casinos such as Binion’s Gambling Hall and the Hooters Hotel.

GVC Holdings Plc, an online betting operator in Europe, provides software to sports books through its Stadium Technology subsidiary. Paddy Power Betfair Plc runs the TVG network and plans to build another studio in the building, this time for a TV channel devoted to betting on football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer.

U.S. companies could also be winners.

Specific Gambling Trades

Investors could target specific companies or take a position in an exchange traded fund, or ETF, that targets the industry, VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSE: BJK). This ETF has more than $50 million in assets and provides exposure to gaming stocks around the world.

The stock has been trading in line with the broad market over the past few weeks, pulling back after reaching new highs.

BJK chart

BJK’s largest holdings are some other stocks to consider. U.S. gambling giants such as Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) are potential buys as are MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), Caesars Entertainment (Nasdaq: CZR) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD).

All of these stocks could be expected to bounce higher on news of a favorable ruling from the Supreme Court. If a trader is considering a position for that potential ruling, a smaller stock could be better positioned to deliver a large gain than a large cap company.

Boyd Gaming has a market cap of less than $4 billion and a chart pattern similar to the overall industry.

BYD chart

WYNN has a much larger market cap, more than $20 billion, and may not see as large a bounce on news that a smaller company would.

Now, if you are considering the gaming industry as an event driven trading opportunity, the risks should also be considered. The most important risk to consider is the possibility of an adverse ruling from the Supreme Court that maintains the status quo and prohibits the expansion of gaming.

In that case, it is likely that these stocks could fall. One company preparing for the possibility of a ruling either way is online gambling giant The Stars Group (Nasdaq: TSG) which this week announced a $4.7 billion deal to acquire U.K. firm Sky Betting & Gaming.

This deal creates the largest online gambling company and provides exposure to the United Kingdom market where gambling is legal.

One analyst told Bloomberg if the U.S. allows sports betting in more states, it would be the “icing on the cake” for the combined companies. But, the deal could pay off for investors even with an adverse ruling.

Gaming industry stocks provide a unique opportunity for investors. This could be the next boom, delivering gains similar to those seen in the marijuana industry. Or, the industry could provide an opportunity for quick gains if the Supreme Court decision boosts the industry.

Traders have a chance to prepare for these events now and should consider risks and the possibility of large rewards.

 

 

 

Value Investing

How to Spot the Next GE

General Electric (NYSE: GE) has left some investors reeling. If you’re reading this and you own individual stocks, there is a high probability you own GE.

According to The Wall Street Journal, “about 43% of GE shareholders are retail investors, people who own stock in their personal accounts, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That compares with 32% at Johnson & Johnson and 21% at Boeing Co.”

This is, in part, due to the company’s generous employee ownership program. For decades, the company has had a program that encourages employees to buy GE shares by offering to match 50% of worker contributions, which were taken directly from paychecks.

Now, the stock has lost more in value than some of the largest disasters in Wall Street history and those employees are shocked.

GE loss

Source: The Wall Street Journal

That total loss of $140 billion of the stock’s value in the past twelve months is spread among employees, former employees, individual investors who believed a company with an operating history spanning more than 125 years couldn’t fail, and large institutional investors.

There is little those investors can do now. The stock’s decline has been so steep that many experts believe the stock will bounce back, to some degree, and insist the potential up side in GE now outweighs the potential risks.

Avoiding the Next GE

All of the disasters shown in the chart above cost individual investors dearly. After each Wall Street flop, the question of how to avoid the next disaster comes up. While it seems hopeless, it is not. There are some steps investors can take to preserve their wealth.

The first lesson for investors is never to believe any investment is 100% safe. GM is another big name on that list of largest all time losers. The company went through bankruptcy and left its original investors with little. Lehman and Bear Stearns also had storied histories.

Investors are familiar with the warning that past performance is not a guarantee to future performance. They apply that advice to mutual funds or the performance of an investment adviser. But, they may not apply that advice to large cap companies with long operating histories.

The Second Lesson: Cash Flow From Operations

GE offered a generous dividend. But, that dividend was cut, one of the reasons for the stock’s sell off. The chart below shows the dividend yield of GE.

dividend yield of GE

Source: Standard & Poor’s

GE’s dividend was also cut in the 2008 financial crisis. But, that time, the market was telegraphing the cut because the yield had become unsustainably high. This time, the dividend yield peaked at about 4.7%, high for the current market but not a red flag like the double digit yield of a decade ago.

While the yield seemed to be reasonable when considered in absolute terms, in fact, it was unsustainably high for GE given its financials.

Companies pay dividends with cash. This seems obvious, but it demonstrates the importance of researching stocks that you may own or are considering buying. A more detailed analysis of cash flow could help investors avoid dividend cuts and large losses in some stocks, including GE, Enron and others on the list shown above.

After reviewing valuation ratios, dividend yields or other important metrics that assist you in your investment decisions, open the company’s statement of cash flows. This could be the most important financial statement and it may very well be the one that gets the least amount of attention.

Cash flow can be confusing, and fortunately we don’t need to be accountants to complete a safety check. We simply need to review two lines on the statement.

cash flow

Companies need to generate cash from operations to fund their financing activities. In the statement of cash flows shown above, the dividend payments and other expenditures of cash used in financing are enclosed in parentheses indicating they are negative numbers or cash outflows.

In the financing activities shown above, notice that GE was spending billions of dollars buying back its shares. The company was also repaying debt, which is often required under a company’s debt obligations.

In each of the past three years, the amount of cash that GE used for financing activities exceeded the amount of cash flow that the company generated through operating activities. This is an unsustainable situation.

It’s that simple. A company must generate sufficient cash flow from its operations in the long run to finance its dividend and other financing activities.

As a stopgap measure, the company can raise funds through its investing activities, information which can also be found in the statement of cash flows. In this case, GE sold off a large amount of assets and used cash from those sales to finance its operations and dividend payments in the previous two years.

Cash Flow Avoids Value Traps

As we noted, many investors fail to consider cash flows when they are making investment decisions. But, value traps, stocks which appear to offer value but tend to trap an investor into losses, will usually have warnings in their statement of cash flows.

Ideally, the cash flow from operations will exceed the cash flow from investing activities. This indicates the dividend is more than likely safe. Cutting a dividend will, of course, result in less income for share holders and almost always result in a sell off in the stock.

The dual effects of lower income and loss of capital could leave an investor feeling trapped and will result in an investor showing real losses in their account.

There is no way to guarantee that a value stock truly offers value to investors. However, a quick check of cash flows will reduce that risk. This is a step that few investors will take and that means this information could help you beat the market by avoiding the largest losses in history.

We do know that there will be other stocks like GE, Enron and the others on that list of the all time biggest losers. It makes sense to check your holdings at least once a year to minimize owning the next one.

 

 

 

Cryptocurrencies

How to Avoid Crypto Scams

avoid crypto scams

Investing in cryptocurrencies can be lucrative. Headlines tell of traders making million dollar fortunes in the markets with a few individuals believed to have made at least $1 billion in the new markets. Large fortunes often result from new markets.

This is true throughout history. The Astor fortune came from trading fur pelts. Vanderbilt capitalized on steam boats, Carnegie on steel and Rockefeller on oil. The same is true in financial markets where Milken earned billions from junk bonds and Icahn profited from takeovers.

In fact, Jack Shwager’s popular Market Wizards series of books is filled with stories of traders who earned fortunes when futures and options markets were being developed.

The simple truth is that new markets often have some inefficiencies. This means the new instruments are not 100% fairly priced and this creates opportunities for those willing to trade in these markets. Of course, there are risks, but the rewards could be life changing from a financial perspective.

But, and there is always a “but” when the potential rewards of financial markets are considered, there are also risks. In the crypto markets, the possibility of a 100% loss is real. This is because some of the investment opportunities in the markets are frauds.

Spotting Frauds In Advance

When studying market action with an eye towards how to profit, it is always useful to consider what others have done. It can be said that success leaves clues and studying the success of others can contribute to our own success. The same is also true of failure.

Studying failures can result in an understanding of what to avoid doing. For example, Bernie Madoff ran a multibillion dollar investment scam over many years. There were red flags and they should have been simple for sophisticated investors to catch.

We will ignore the claimed steady returns which many analysts claim in hindsight should have highlighted the fraud and we will assume the returns were possible. There were still signs of fraud present.

Registered investment advisers have safeguards in place to prevent Madoff’s fraud. They don’t accept checks made out to them personally. They use a custodian for the funds. Madoff required clients to make checks out to him. Right there, sophisticated investors should have stopped the process.

Now, this is a lesson all investors should know. Studying failures can be profitable in the markets and we will look at some failures in the crypto markets to see what we should avoid. It won’t always be possible to do so, but some steps can minimize the risk of outright fraud in crypto markets.

Studying Past Frauds

One of the most recent frauds occurred just weeks ago. Two initial coin offerings (ICOs), run by the same company operating out of Vietnam, are believed to have swindled around 32,000 investors of a combined $660 million

Modern Tech is believed to have pulled off the largest fraud in ICO history. Investors who participated in the offering of both iFan, which was advertised a social media platform for celebrities to promote their content to fans, and Pincoin, was promising 40% monthly returns on investments, likely lost everything.

For Pincoin, the 40% monthly return should have been a tipoff. If it sounds too outrageously good to be true, it is probably a scam in the investment world.

OneCoin has been the subject of a number of investigations over the past 18 months. In 2016, over $30 million dollars were seized by Chinese authorities investigating the OneCoin operation in the country.

It was officially labelled as a ‘clear ponzi scheme’ in India in July 2017. Authorities in Italy levied a fine of more than $2.5 million against the company in September 2017.

The company claimed to be officially licensed in Vietnam, but this was later refuted by the country’s government. Regulators around the world, including Thailand, Croatia, Bulgaria, Finland and Norway, warned investors of the risks of investing in OneCoin.

For OneCoin, repeated warnings from regulators is a tip-off that this is likely a fraud.

Bitconnect was also accused of being a ponzi scheme. It discontinued operations in January after a cease and desist order from two American financial regulators.

Users exchanged Bitcoin for Bitconnect Coin (BCC) on the Bitconnect platform and were promised Best Return on investment.

The company also operated a lending program, where users lent BCC out to other users to make interest depending on how much BCC they’d lent on the platform. There was also a typical, ponzi scheme referral system.

Plexcoin was shut down by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after investors poured more than $15 million into the company’s ICO. Plexcorp was promising investors a return on investment of more than 1,300% per month before they ordered the company to stop operations.

Centratech was endorsed by boxer Floyd Mayweather and DJ Khaled as it raised about $32 million from investors. Centratech claimed a Visa and MasterCard debit card service would allow users to convert cryptocurrencies to any other currency easily.

Two of the founders have since been arrested on fraud charges relating to the ICO. The SEC alleges that to promote the ICO, the founders created fictional executives with impressive biographies, posted false or misleading marketing materials on the website, and paid celebrities to tout the ICO on social media.

Common Themes to Avoid

ICOs are a recurring theme in the list of scams. An ICO is a round of public funding and is typically launched by a tech startup which sells internal cryptocurrency tokens to prospective investors. Investors buy tokens in the hopes that the company will launch its product and the tokens will grow in value.

An ICO is like an initial public offering, which is when a traditional company makes its share available for purchase to the general public. But, IPOs are regulated. Avoiding ICOs could be one way to avoid a scam.

Another theme is widespread publicity that the ICO is a scam. A simple Google search would help investors avoid scams.

But, the simplest defense might be to stock the biggest cryptos, which include bitcoin and other currencies with at least $1 billion in market capitalization.

Weekly Recap

Weekly Review

weekly review

Crypto Demonstrates Its Value in the Syrian Crisis

Many investors look at gold as a hedge against international turmoil. That thesis is likely to be put to the test, again. There has been increased volatility in gold, but the gains have been short lived. In this environment, traders have traditionally swarmed to gold. There has been increased volatility in gold, but the gains have been short lived.

In our recent article,we identify an alternative to gold and explain how it could be the safe haven trade in the current crisis. To learn more about this opportunity, click right here.

Bloomberg Shows Stocks Can Gain 40%

Some market research is truly more important than others. Generally, long term forecasts will have more value than very short-term forecasts for individual investors, since their trading costs will be high and access to rapid trade execution will be small.

Some sources simply should not be ignored. One of those sources is Bloomberg, a news service that has access to the best analysis. Recently, Bloomberg shared an indicator that is deeply undervalued and you can read more about it in this article.

Conflicts, highlight investment opportunities

Recently, President Trump ordered military strikes in Syria, a response to the Syrian government’s decision to launch a chemical attack earlier this month. The U.S. action included the launch of 105 missiles, fired by U.S, French and British forces.

For now, no one knows what will happen next in Syria, but we do know that the situation offers opportunities for traders. You can read more about those opportunities by clicking here.

Looking at an Unloved Income Investment

Investing is emotional for many people. Those emotional responses have led to detailed studies in the field of behavioral finance. Researchers have now proven that many of our investment decisions are driven by emotion.

But, even in an area where emotions are common, the depth of emotional responses to one asset class stands out. You can find out more about that asset class in our recent article.