Author: Andrew Packer

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin Magazine: Maximizing Bitcoin Gains with ETF Data

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Bitcoin prices closed September on a strong note, rallying nearly 10%. Bitcoin prices topped $66,000 for the first time since July, after first dropping to the $50,000 range.

October tends to be a strong month for crypto, especially in the years after a halving. In fact, the entire third quarter tends to see excellent returns for bitcoin. Given bitcoin’s volatility, however, traders may want to use data to find ways to better trade.

The start of new bitcoin ETFs earlier this year provide substantial amounts of data. First, investors can track the overall flow of bitcoin into these ETFs. That creates a simple way to determine whether the big money is buying or selling.

Investors who buy bitcoin when ETF data shows strong inflows are likely to get in ahead of bullish moves higher. Those who sell when big money starts to exit the trade can sidestep a pullback.

Again, this takes advantage of bitcoin’s inherent volatility. Locking in smaller gains from trading can take some of the sting out of buying and holding a volatile asset.

Since late September, investors have heavily started buying bitcoin once again. That suggests, along with bitcoin’s monthly average history, that a further move higher is likely in the next few months.

 

To read the full analysis, click here.

Commodities

QTR’s Fringe Finance: Peter Schiff Exclusive: Gold to $26,000?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Gold prices have pulled back slightly after hitting $2,700 per ounce. From here, it’s only about a 10% further rally for the metal to hit the nice, round number of $3,000.

Where does gold from there? That depends on a variety of factors. Gold tends to perform well when investors expect inflation. The Federal Reserve’s recent shift to focus on jobs rather than inflation supports higher gold prices.

Plus, as interest rates decline, gold looks increasingly attractive compared to bonds. That’s because gold has no yield. And bond yields are now on track to continually decline.

If conditions are right, gold may not stop at $3,000 per ounce. The metal could even accelerate its price appreciation, and hit $6,000 per ounce next year.

Such a move would likely require come kind of financial crisis. It would need to be strong enough to send investors away from the U.S. dollar. Most investors first go to cash during a crisis. Globally, the world first turns to the U.S. dollar.

The dollar could face more trouble ahead. U.S. debt continues to rise, with an increase of over $1 trillion nearly every 90 days. A debt crisis would be the kind of situation that could prove a perfect storm for gold.

 

To watch the full interview, click here.

 

Income investing

Dividend Growth Investor: Six Dividend Stocks Increasing Dividends Last Week

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Markets are near all-time highs. But the market is also rotating. Tech stocks are no longer leading returns higher. Other parts of the market are starting to show strength.

With interest rates on the path to decline, investors have an opportunity, especially with income-producing stocks. That’s because their yields will look increasingly attractive as bond yields fall. Investors who allocate some capital to dividend growth stocks may get the best returns over the next 12 months.

That’s because a dividend-paying company tends to show that a firm is profitable. And increased dividends reflect management’s confidence about the company’s operations. That can be true across a number of sectors.

For instance, fast food chain McDonald’s (MCD) just raised its quarterly dividend by 6%. It now pays a 2.2% dividend, and has raised that payout for 48 consecutive years.

Fast food sales have struggled in recent years amid a resurgence in inflation. But McDonald’s has successfully managed to boost sales with some new deals.

Another dividend growth opportunity now is with automation and aerospace giant Honeywell (HON). They just increased their quarterly dividends by 4.6%.

Honeywell shares also pay a 2.2% current yield, but they have raised their dividend payout for 14 consecutive years.

While not as exciting as tech companies, dividend growth players continue to create slow-and-steady returns. Over time, that can create tremendous wealth

 

To view the full list of companies raising their dividend payouts now, click here.

 

Economy

ClearValue Tax: The Great Melt-Up: National Debt Crisis Will Skyrocket Inflation

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The Federal Reserve has shifted to fighting inflation to protecting the job market. While most investors have cheered the news, there’s a key takeaway. It’s the fact that the central bank may allow inflation to tick higher.

If that’s the case, then inflation could even re-accelerate. Historically, that’s what happened with the high inflation of the 1970s. An initial surge higher in inflation dropped, only to reignite higher later in the decade.

With that in mind, investors may want to prepare for a melt-up in inflation again.

Besides lower interest rates, government spending could fuel this melt-up. That’s because government spending is already running a massive deficit. The U.S. government has managed to increase its total debt by nearly $1 trillion every 100 days this year.

Plus, the cost of financing that debt has now topped $1 trillion annually. That’s just money going out to bondholders of U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. It doesn’t go towards any productive spending.

In the initial stage of a melt-up, markets may rally higher. Governments like this option, as it creates a feeling of initial wealth creation. But markets may not make new all-time highs in inflation-adjusted returns.

Investors looking to protect from a debt crisis and inflation have few alternatives. Assets such as gold and bitcoin have no counterparty risk, if held directly. Financial assets in general should rise as well, from the stock market to your home.

 

To view the full danger of melt-up inflation, click here.

Stock market strategies

FX Evolution: Will October Actually Be Bad for Markets?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Financial markets skated through September unscathed. The start of an interest rate cut cycle allowed stock to break higher in what’s historically the worst month of the year. However, for October, it’s a different story.

October is the second-worst performing month of the year. Even worse, it’s also the month that tends to have market crashes. And being the month before a presidential election, investors should expect a high level of volatility.

After September’s rally, stocks entered the month in overbought conditions. The selloff on October 1 was related to geopolitical fears, but also reflected the market’s overstretched conditions.

That’s reflected in terms of the market’s greed and fear. The market was well into greed conditions, as investors were betting on the economy avoiding a recession for now.

Typically, if the economy can avoid a recession, markets should be higher in the next three and six month period.

China’s push for new stimulus measures could help boost that higher too.

So, while October may be volatile, markets are still structurally set for further gains going into 2025. Investors and traders may want to use any market weakness over the coming few weeks to position themselves.

It’s also good to use the next few weeks to look for any potential change to that longer-term uptrend.

 

To view the full analysis, click here.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin Magazine: How Bitcoin Will React After the U.S. Election

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Cryptocurrency bitcoin has had a strong year, up about 49%. That’s better than the stock market, or even gold. But the crypto is well off its highs from earlier in the year. Even with new demand from bitcoin ETFs, and the recent halving.

This year, bitcoin made a new all-time high before its halving event. That could be a case of investors and traders getting in ahead of the news. However, signs point to further upside in the future.

That future could be shaped by the outcome of November’s election. Bitcoin correlates strongly to trends in the S&P 500. That trend will likely increase as bitcoin investments become more institutionalized.

Typically, the S&P 500 rallies higher following an election, and into the first year of any presidency.

That bodes well for bitcoin prices. That would also be on par with the bitcoin rallies in 2017 and 2021.

If bitcoin follows a similar move to its returns following the 2016 election into 2017, bitcoin could peak out at nearly $500,000. If the trend is closer to that of the 2020/2021 period, bitcoin could see a price of $250,000 in the next year.

And bitcoin’s overall peak likely won’t happen until 2026, before the next winter cycle sets in. So investors with the patience to sit through pre-election market volatility in bitcoin could be heavily rewarded. It just takes a timeframe of the next 12-18 months.

 

To read the full analysis, click here.

Income investing

Mr. Dividend Investor: Top 3 Dividend Stocks For October 2024 That I’m Scooping Up

Posted on by Andrew Packer

September is nearly over. The month is historically the weakest for markets. But for the first time in five years, markets are holding their own this month. However, October could be a different story.

That’s because October is the second-worst month on average for investor returns. October is also the month that ends to see big market selloffs. It’s even the month most associated with crashes.

While a major crash is likely off the table this year, markets could still trade choppy. But with interest rates coming down, dividend-paying stocks should look increasingly attractive.

Investors can get a steady stream of income with dividend stocks, plus further capital gains.

For example, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is an oil giant that provides investors with a 1.7% dividend at current prices.

While that’s not the largest in the oil space, Occidental pays out just 20% of its earnings as dividends. That’s a sustainable payout, especially with oil prices trading near $70 per barrel. And Occidental has a history of gradually rising its payout over time.

Oxy has grown earnings by 35% over the past year, even in a challenging market for oil. OXY shares are down 17%, but are at a level where big buyers have historically been interested in buying more.

 

To view the other two dividend stocks worth buying now, click here.

 

Technical Analysis

Lead-Lag Report: John Roque on Mastering Technical Analysis, Bond Yield Cycles, and Precious Metals Trends

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Markets stand at a pivot point as interest rates start to decline. Investors looking for market direction and trading potential volatility may see these opportunities by using technical analysis. Most investors know to look at a price chart to decide if it’s time to get into a trade or not.

But technical analysis can offer far more opportunities. It can give a sign of when to sell a winning trade. Or when to make a short-term trade.

Technical analysis looks for repeated patterns that occur in stock charts all the time. They can occur in individual stocks, sectors, or entire indices.

Today, investors have access to a number of technical tools available for free on nearly every financial website.

While markets have gotten increasingly complex, technical indicators can cut through the complexity.

For instance, investors looking for big returns can look for a breakout trend. That’s where a stock moves out of a trading range and surges higher.

For more defensive investors, moving averages often act as places of support. A falling stock or the entire market will often pause when it gets near a key average. The most-followed moving averages are the 50-day and 200-day.

With interest rates trending lower, technical analysis favors investing in the bond market now. Investors can likely see prices continue to rise as yields fall.

 

To watch the full interview, click here.

 

Economy

Rebel Capitalist: This Economic Bellwether Gives Dire Warning

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Investors have a nearly infinite amount of data to look at to determine the strength of the economy. However, some data points are more valuable than others. Most data is lagging, coming out months after it could be of strong use.

Some corporate data can give a timely sense of how the economy is faring. This kind of data can show if customers continue to spend, or have started to cut back on their spending.

One of the key companies to watch for the economy is FedEx (FDX). The delivery firm is a bellwether for the economy. Why? Because its total sales and deliveries point to the total amount of activity in the economy.

Recently, FedEx has shown some weakness. Shares dropped 15% in a day on their latest earnings.

Why? The company reports that demand for speedy delivery has declined.

In other words, customers have a lower need for overnight delivery services on anything from signed paperwork to physical shipments. That could be a sign of a slowing economy.

Meanwhile, the stock market trades at all-time highs. But there are signs that the economy is not running on all cylinders. And that investors need to be cautious on their investments, looking for only the best opportunities right now.

 

 

To watch the full video, click here.

Economy

Game of Trades: The Damage Is Irreparable

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Interest rates are starting to trickle down. But it may already be too little, too late for the economy. Since 2018, the cost of the average mortgage payment has jumped by nearly $1,000 per month, up 76%. That’s partly due to rising home prices, but largely due to higher interest rate costs.

The same is true in other parts of the economy. The cost to borrow for personal loans has doubled. Money spent on interest isn’t being spent elsewhere.

When interest rates are high, consumers eventually need to think about financing costs. With consumer loan defaults on the rise, it’s possible that consumer spending is hitting a turning point.

Consequently, we could see a further slowdown in consumer spending. That would impact the overall economy, given how much weight consumers carry in the overall economy. That could lead to some market danger in 2025.

The recent rise in unemployment suggests that inflationary dangers have passed. But it may now be rising too quickly for comfort.

In a credit-based economy, keeping interest rates from moving too high is crucial. Many now think the Federal Reserve has acted too little, too late to avoid economic danger. It may be too late for rate cuts to avoid a recession, the so-called “soft-landing,” even as markets have moved as though that’s been the case.

Investors should continue to monitor consumer spending and debt trends to determine the strength of the economy.

 

To view the full analysis, click here.