Author: Andrew Packer

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin Magazine: Is Bitcoin Price Performance In 2025 Repeating 2017 Bull Cycle?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Since its inception and pricing in dollars, bitcoin has exhibited a four-year cycle. It rises for three years, culminating in a massive blow-off top. Then, there’s a brutal bear market, where prices drop by 50% or more from their peak.

So far, 2024 saw new all-time highs, and was the second year of a bull cycle following the 2022 bear market. Most bitcoin followers expect a blow-off top in the latter half of 2025.

One sign that we could be in for such a move is a comparison for the cycle topping year of 2017. In that year, bitcoin prices soared from around $1,000 to a peak of over $17,000.

That cycle saw numerous sharp pullbacks along the way. Currently, there’s a strong correlation to 2025 relative to 2017. More importantly, many factors are lining up in favor of cryptocurrencies.

There’s increased regulatory clarity. There’s increased institutional interest and buying. And governments are creating Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBRs).

Another trend is that global liquidity is rising. There’s typically a two-month delay between increasing global liquidity and rising bitcoin prices. If that’s the case, then bitcoin is likely to start rising through the summer months.

As bitcoin starts to soar, other cryptocurrencies will likely take off as well. Investors can position themselves for a move higher by accumulating bitcoin now. That can include direct buys or through a variety of ETFs.

 

To see the full correlation between 2017 and 2025 for bitcoin, click here.

Income investing

Dividend Growth Investor: Eight Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Distributions Last Week

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Earnings season is in the rear-view mirror. But corporate boards of directors continue to approve policies such as dividend payments. Companies with growing cash flows can decide whether to fully reinvest in the business, make an acquisition, or pay shareholders.

Paying dividends demonstrates that a company is rewarding shareholders as the owners of a business. And that the company has stable cash flows. Companies that can consistently increase their dividends tend to be rewarded with higher share prices.

Recently, 27 companies have announced dividend increases. Of those companies, eight of them have consistently raised dividends annually for at least a decade.

That’s a strong sign of a mature business that can continue to reward shareholders from increased growth.

For instance, JPMorgan Bank (JPM) has existed in some form or another for over a century. The bank just raised its quarterly dividend payout by 12%, for the 15th consecutive year.

Yes, the current yield of 2.3% is only slightly higher than the dividend yield of the overall market. But a rapid increase in that payout could reward long-term investors.

Another recent dividend increase comes from wireless technology company Qualcomm (QCOM). Qualcomm raised its dividend by 4.7%, and currently pays a 2.3% yield. More importantly, Qualcomm just raised their payout for the 23rd consecutive year.

 

To see the full list of companies that have increased their payouts for at least 10 years, click here.

 

 

Economy

Reventure Consulting: Zillow Officially Cuts Forecast. 242 Cities Heading for Housing Deflation

Posted on by Andrew Packer

For the past two years, the housing market has been frozen. High mortgage rates have kept potential first-time buyers off the market. And it’s also kept existing homeowners from being willing to sell.

That’s starting to thaw. Mortgage rates have come down slightly. And more homeowners are willing to list their homes. However, there’s now a rising supply of homes, far in excess for demand at current rates.

The end result will likely mean a drop in home prices. That’s good news for potential buyers, as it increases affordability. However, existing homeowners will have to face lower prices. Since a home is often the largest source of wealth, that decline could prove uncomfortable.

It’s also a sign that the housing market’s thaw will still be a cool one for some time. However, it could still prove a profitable investment.

For instance, first-time homebuyers have several programs that can get them into a home with a low down payment. And some properties come with an assumable mortgage. That means buyers can assume the lower mortgage rates that existed a few years ago.

So while housing prices may finally see a notable drop, it could increase affordability. And first-time buyers may start to make up the biggest component of the real estate market once again.

 

To see the full breakdown on the real estate market, click here.

Economy

Junk Bond Investor: Relief Rally or Dead Cat Bounce?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The recent market selloff has caused investors to flee the stock market and look for more safe-haven assets. That includes cash and gold. For the first two weeks of the stock selloff, the bond market traded calmly.

In the last week, however, bond yields started to diverge from each other. Specifically, high-yield and lower-credit saw a push higher. Those rising yields suggest investors started to look at bonds in terms of their safety of repayment.

What caused this move weeks after stocks started falling? The recent economic data suggests a sluggish economy. Inflation is starting to slow. And consumer spending is moderating. And unemployment is starting to tick higher, even before government layoffs show up in the statistics.

However, the slight change in dynamics in the bond market suggests caution. Investors in bonds are typically focused on the return of their capital. That’s in contrast to the stock market, where the focus is on big gains.

For now, yield spreads are still relatively normal. However, a further widening, irrespective of what the stock market does, could signal trouble.

Investors looking for the safety of the bond market should stick with higher-rated debt offerings. Potentially, investors could even look to lock in U.S. Treasuries ahead of further rate cuts this year.

 

To see the full changes underway in the bond market, click here.

Stock market

FX Evolution: Retail Panic = Wall Street Profit

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Financial markets don’t move in a straight line. But there are recurring patterns that investors can follow to get a sense of where markets are going.

One such strategy is to follow fund flows. That data is widely available. And investors can separate it out between institutional investors and retail investors. While both groups often move in sync, sometimes one group gets ahead of the other. In the recent market selloff, institutions were early sellers.

As retail investors started to trim position, institutions moved back in ahead of the market bounce higher. This could be seen more clearly with an increase in dark pool transactions.

These trades don’t show up on traditional exchange volume. But they suggest that someone expects a big move, but doesn’t want to tip off the market.

The end result? Smart money buys from retail investors as they sell, just in time for stock to rebound.

Markets are now back near the 200-day moving average, but below the 50-day moving average. This zone represents a classic “wall of worry.”

Stocks could still break lower from here, or retest the recent lows and move higher. On the plus side, stocks could also see a V-shaped recovery instead. Seasonality trends are now bullish for stocks into the summer. Starting in late summer, institutional investors will once again try to trap retail investors into losses.

 

To see the full technical analysis on the market now, click here.

Cryptocurrencies

Bravos Digital Assets: Ethereum Is About to See a Massive Short-Squeeze (Don’t Miss This)

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The cryptocurrency space is usually exciting. But over the past few months, the space has drifted lower. And in so doing, it’s fared worse than the overall stock market. Bitcoin is down 25% from its all-time highs.

Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies can’t seem to catch a break. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has yet to make a new high this crypto cycle. And its overall price is still down more than 50% from all-time levels.

However, that could soon change. Given the lag in other cryptos relative to bitcoin, traders have smelled weakness. They’re exploiting it by shorting other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum given its volume and liquidity.

That means that there’s a massive amount of short interest. Enough that a move higher in Ethereum could kick off a short-squeeze.

A short-squeeze occurs when an asset is heavily shorted and prices start moving higher. As gains become losses, it makes sense to buy back to close the short position. That buying pressure can cause prices to rise substantially and quickly.

Typically, a squeeze lasts until short interest is back to a historical level. And a price move that’s massively higher may see some of those gains decline. But the end result is that prices are far higher than where the short squeeze started.

 

To see the full rationale for a short-squeeze in Ethereum, click here.

Commodities

Commodity Culture: Silver Deficit Barreling Into a “Brick Wall”

Posted on by Andrew Packer

Gold was a runaway winner in 2024, outperforming even the S&P 500. The metal has continued to trend higher even as stocks have pulled back, finally breaking over $3,000 per ounce.

However, while gold has hit new all-time highs, other precious metals have lagged. Silver prices are in the low $30 range, well off of all-time highs near $50. Given how gold has performed, silver should, in theory, trade at a much higher price.

Most gold discoveries throughout history have been saved, whether in coins, bars, or jewelry. Silver has far more industrial uses than gold. That’s made it attractive for electronics. It’s a key metal in technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles.

As such, much silver gets used up. And over the past few years, stockpiles of physical silver have been in decline. If gold continues to push higher, investor interest in silver may take off even further given its lower price.

But with the current supply available, the metal could end up having a strong catch-up rally to gold.

A similar trend cold also play out in platinum and palladium. Those metals are both rarer than gold and have strong industrial uses. But they trade far less per ounce than gold right now.

Investors can play this potential trend with a variety of ways, from the iShares silver Trust (SLV), which owns physical silver, to buying physical silver itself.

 

For a full read on the precious metals market and silver’s opportunity now, click here.

 

Stock market

A Wealth of Common Sense: Volatility Clusters

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The stock market’s 10% correction from all-time highs is, in many ways, right on schedule. During 2024’s occasional pullbacks, stocks never hit a 10% correction. On average, markets correct once every two years.

Meanwhile, a bear market is a 20% drop from all-time highs. Those occur less often. Typically, there’s 1-2 per decade. The 2010s had no bear market. But 2020 and 2022 already saw bear markets. It’s highly unusual to have three bear markets in a decade.

With more and more capital invested in financial markets, both a downturn and a recovery seems faster than ever. That’s because money can move quickly. And more traders tend to push stocks around more over the short-term.

So, while there has been a bit of a volatility cluster in the 2020s, it’s not out of the norm. And even with the recent pullback, investors have fared incredibly well in the first half of the 2020s.

While economic trends and headlines may shift, rising productivity and better technology make lives better.

But human nature hasn’t evolved. We can still get overly greedy and push markets up too high. Or get too fearful, too quickly, and push markets lower. Some are already calling this market pullback nothing more than a “growth scare.” Time may yet prove them right.

 

To see the full trend of market corrections and bear markets, click here.

 

Economy

Rebel Capitalist: Was the Recession Just Canceled Due to This?

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The past few weeks have seen rising fears of a recession hitting the United States. Those predictions are based on the continued weakness in consumer spending. But other factors, like shrinking the size of government, can also play a key role in a slowdown in GDP.

However, some private sector data continues to look attractive. And several indicators show that the economy could continue to fare well. The prior week’s consumer and producer inflation data, for instance, showed that stagflation was less likely.

A new data piece this week on U.S. industrial production is also bullish for the economy. Simply put, industrial production rose 0.7% month-over-month, far better than the 0.2% expectation.

More importantly, U.S. industrial production is at an all-time high. Historically, there has never been a recession when production is at an all-time high. It needs to come down first before the rest of the economy slips into a recession.

Obviously, that doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is cancelled. But it’s a strong data point that makes it unlikely.

And booming production suggests that the economy is still expanding. That’s bullish for the market. It suggests that stocks could still recover from their recent selloff and make new all-time highs this year.

There may still be increased uncertainty and volatility, but overall data isn’t as bad as it looks.

 

To see the full explanation behind industrial production’s role in the economy, click here.

 

Technical Analysis

ValueTrend: Near-Termed SPX Strategy

Posted on by Andrew Packer

The stock market’s recent pullback was the fifth-fastest pullback from an all-time high to a correction. After declining 10%, stocks have looked to recover a bit. Technical analysis provides a sign of key areas to recover to.

More importantly, prior market history suggests where to look for a sustainable bounce. That’s because technical levels play two roles depending on the price action.

On the way down, a key price range is a form of support, where buyers often come in. After that trend breaks, the key price range becomes resistance. That’s where traders may sell again, having seen enough of a bounce before going lower.

Currently, the 50-day moving average could be a key support level for markets. If the S&P 500 goes back to its 50-day and can hold above that level, it could continue higher. If so, it will likely continue through the summer until seasonal weakness kicks off in the fall.

If stocks cannot continue a relief rally and fail to regain and hold key levels, there could be further selling ahead. Given the mix of economic and headline news data, some area already calling this selloff a “growth scare.”

Given the current uncertainty, investors may want to carry a higher percentage of cash than what they would normally hold. But if stocks break higher, some of the most oversold tech stocks will likely rally the hardest.

 

To see the full technical indicators to watch now, click here.